Reclaiming Common Sense

 Best November Jobs Report Since 1979

How are Men and Women Doing This November?

The Monthly Employment Situation Report is a market mover. The report is created using two different data sets: the Current Population Survey (CPS) jobs and unemployment data and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) worker and wages data.

This is what has been previously discussed:

  • We added 504,000 non-seasonally adjusted private sector workers this month.We added 266,000 seasonally adjusted Non-Farm Payroll Workers. We added 254,000 SA Private Sector Workers. That s only half of the Story.  We added part-time jobs while trimming full-time jobs and cutting the number of unemployed workers. This was covered in "Nov. Jobs Report: Surprise, Surprise."
  • We had a record number of private sector workers earning record setting hourly wages during November. Only Mining and Logging had fewer workers month to month and November to November, according to the CES data. This was covered in the article. November Jobs Report: Manufacturing Success."
  • There are some people saying that not everybody is winning in the current Trump Economy. How is he doing compared to his predecessors? President Trump has added more full-time jobs than his predecessors. He has also added workers in every sector of the workforce, something his predecessors cannot say.This was covered in "Five President at 34 Months: Monster Month."

There was a "War on Women" that was discussed during the 2012 Presidential election that was revisited in during the 2016 Presidential Election. Women and Men were at record levels of jobs during October. What Happened this month?

We have a Record level of Men working this month. There are 73.9 million men working full-time jobs and 10.1 million men working part-time jobs. There are also 2.890 million unemployed men. This means that there are 2.267 million more men working full-time jobs now than during July 2007, the peak, pre-recession Current Population Survey (CPS) jobs month. There are 2.165 million more men working part-time jobs than during July 2007. It is important to notice that there were fewer men working full-time jobs during January 2016,  January 2017, and January 2018 than were working full-time during July 2007. This was an incomplete recovery. Men lost 10.4 million full-time jobs at the depth of the recession. We also have 210,000 more full-time jobs this November than we had last November. We also have 735,000 more men working part-time jobs than were working part-time jobs last November.

The Male Unemployment Rate continues to fall while the Participation rate continues to rise. Unemployed workers are participants so this means that we have more men entering the workforce than who are coming off of "unemployment." Men had a participation rate of 73.09% and an unemployment rate of 4.52% during November 2007. This month we are at 69.06% and 3.33%. The difference in the participation rate means that we are missing roughly 5 million men in the workforce. This means that the effective unemployment rate for men, what this column calls the "U-7" unemployment rate, is 8.66%

We have a November record level of Women working in the workforce this November. There was just a slight drop from their October All-time record level. There are 6.001 million more women working full-time jobs and 1.197 million more women working part-times jobs than were working during July 2007. There are 1.190 million more women working FT jobs and 201,000 fewer women working part-time jobs, than were working last November. Women lost fewer full-time jobs than men during the recession. Women recovered full by February 2015. This is three years faster than men.

The Participation rate for Women is almost back to their November 2011 Level. Women are also seeing their participation rate rise while their unemployment rate falls. The unemployment level for women is 3.29% compared to 3.33% for men. Their participation rate is 57.75%. If you  compare their participation rate  with that of November 2007 (69.06) and their unemployment rate (4.52%) then you will find that their U-7 is 6.29% and tat we are missing 2.48 million women in the workforce.

The Number of Multiple Job Holders (MJH) were near all-time highs, plural.  We had 8.351 million total MJH with 4.602 million FT PT jobs, 2.172 million PT PT job workers, 377,000 FT FT workers, the remainder being "PT FT workers" or variable hour workers.

  • Men worked 4.046 Million MJH with 2.471M FT PT, 734,000 PT PT and 217,000 FT FT workers
  • Women worked 4.233 million MJH with 2.130M FT PT, 1.433M PT PT, and 78,000 women working FT FT.

The number of total multiple job holders was the third highest for the month of November at 8.351 million workers.  We have the second highest November level of Dual PT job workers, and the fourth highest level of FT PT job workers and the fourth highest November level of FT FT workers. This data goes back to 1995.

Participation Matters.  Multiple Job Holders is a subset of the CPS data.  There is no impact on the FT or PT jobs. President Trump inherited the lowest first term participation rate since former President Reagan.  People may be working two jobs because one does not pay the bills. One job may not pay the bills because there are still people coming in off the sidelines.

There are many ways to analyze the data. Jobs are up. Workers are up. Wages are up. Multiple job holders are near all-time November highs. There are more men and women working this November than any other November.  Record levels of workers earning record levels of wages could mean our first $600 billion December Retail Month. It will be a record month.

It's the Economy.