Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

Jobs and Unemployment were the Theme this Week


This week it was "all about" jobs and unemployment. Monday this column released an ADP forecast Article. Tuesday the "Top Ten" articles of March article was released highlighting jobs, unemployment, and week in review articles. The monthly ADP report was released on Wednesday. The weekly unemployment claims data and report was released Thursday.The week ended Friday with the release of the Monthly Employment Situation report. Jobs and Unemployment.


(April 2) The ADP Payroll report is "always" released the Wednesday prior to the Friday that the monthly Employment Situation Report is released by the government. The ADP number is a seasonally adjusted only data set. This data closely resembles the Private Sector Current Employment Statistics data. The "headline number" for the CES data is the "Non-Farm Payroll" number that includes government jobs. ADP does not include government jobs. "March ADP Expectations: Up over 215k" projected that two sectors might drop month to month and that one sector might drop March to March.


(April 3) What were the most read articles this past month on this website? Where are your interests. The appear to be a number of you who wake up on Saturday and Read the week in review articles, similar to this one. There are some of you who like the Jobs report and ADP report forecast articles. There are some of you who are still interested in the weekly Unemployment Claims articles. The "Top Ten Articles of March 2018" included four week in review articles, two weekly unemployment claims articles, and two jobs forecast articles. You will have to check out the top ten article to find out the other two articles.


(April 4) Wednesday we received a pleasant surprise. The March ADP payroll number Marched ahead 245,000 jobs. Every sector increased their payrolls between February and March, including the Information Technology Sector and Trade, Transportation and Utility Sectors. Heck, 245,000 jobs is "at least" 215,000 jobs.


(April 5)   Thursday was Unemployment Claims Data Day. The report was summarily dismissed in the media. The non-seasonally adjusted data was recorded 27,000 lower than the same week last year and reported only  9,000 lower. If the same seasonal factor was used this year as was used last year then this year's seasonally adjusted data would have been reported HIGHER than last year. The continuing claims data recorded and reported a drop in claims.


(April 6) The monthly jobs report was eagerly anticipated this week. The other prognosticators were expecting a number of 190,000 seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll jobs. The "problem" is that while others were reporting the headline number as being a disappointment, they forgot to mention that February's seasonally adjusted data was revised higher, borrowing some growth from March, and that the seasonal factor used to convert the data from the non-seasonally adjusted level recorded to the seasonally adjusted data reported was the lowest since 1980, thereby reducing the seasonally adjusted data. They also forgot to mention that the "March Jobs Report was better than March 2017."


Jobs are up. The current population Survey data revealed that we have the most combined full-time and part-time jobs ever. Normally peak employment is during either July or August. Unemployment is down. Normally we see this level of weekly employment claims during the final week of September, not the first week of April.This is good news. Share it.


It's the economy.