Reclaiming Common Sense

This week was jobs week. We received very good news from the ADP jobs report and we received a mixed message from the Government's Employment Situation Report for March.This month this column reviewed some of the data from the February Jobs Report and examined the demise of quantitative easing and the potential of "quantitative acceleration."

(April 3) The payroll company ADP releases its jobs report in advance of the Government's Employment Situation Report.The report provides seasonally adjusted data on a regional and sector basis. Last months ADP report for February caught people off-guard. That data was revised slightly lower with the release of the AD   P report for March."What to expect from ADP this week" examined the monthly data changes and annual data changes and projected 

(April 5) There was a guest on the "Tucker Carlson Show" who works for the "Fight for Fifteen" group. He was discussing the plight of "black," "brown," and "white people" who were unable to make a living wage at a minimum wage of under $15 an hour. That led to some research on the jobs status of "Black," "Hispanic/Latino," and "White" people. "Unequal Opportunity Recovery" revealed that the recovery has not been colorblind. Two groups  have recovered and one has not.

(April 5) We have now received strong back to back ADP job reports. "Strong March ADP Report" We saw monthly growth in nine out of ten sectors. We saw annual growth in eight out of ten sectors. The question is did we see seasonally adjusted job growth recorded in those same sectors in the employment situation report?

(April 6) Are we getting tired of all the winning?The weekly unemployment claims number has been reported under 300,000 for so long that the media does not cover the story. The problem is are we seeing low non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) first-time unemployment claims (FTU) under 300,000 because jobs are being created, because people are working multiple jobs and are still employed when they lose one of them. or because the are working an elevated level of part-time jobs which are not covered by unemployment benefits? "Strong Weekly Unemployment Numbers" showed that even though the SA FTU number remains above 200,000, we could see that number drop under 200,000 by the end of the month. We could also see the continuing claims number drop below 2 million.

(April 6) There was a considerable amount of news this week: The confirmation of Judge Gorsuch, the Chemical attacks on the people of Syria, the US enforcing the "Red Line" that former President Obama drew in the sand, and the jobs report. There was also talk of the Federal Reserve starting to unwind Quantitative Easing. "Is Quantitative Acceleration Coming" reminded reader of the extreme measures that Congress took to tackle the recessionary conditions that President Obama inherited and the actions that the Federal Reserve did to make money cheaper, and balloon the Federal Debt.

(April 7) Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.When the jobs number was released there was a ton of head scratching. How did the ADP number come in at 249,000 seasonally adjusted jobs and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) number come in at 98,000 non-farm payroll jobs? The CES number did not reconcile with the Current Population (CPS) number - seasonally adjusted or non-seasonally adjusted. We saw over 1 million NSA Full-time and Part-time jobs created last month. That was converted to a gain of 525,000 seasonally adjusted CPS jobs. Unemployment fell. Participation improved. It was a "Crazy March Jobs Report."

(April 7) This column has written a number of article series. One series is the Jobs Report forecast series. A second series is the weekly unemployment claims report articles. a third series is, or was, the "Four Presidents at __ Months column." That series compared President Obama's job accomplishments at the same point in his Presidency as Presidents Reagan, Clinton,and George W. Bush 43. New President, New Series. The new "Five Presidents" series is looking at the start of the four most recent two-term Presidents and President Trump. The data is the CPS data. Two months do not create a pattern. Until we get through the Summer this series will look at the effective unemployment rate, the unemployment rate that factors in the participation level and the missing participants. "The Start of Another Reagan Recovery" could have been titles "Five Presidents after Two Months in Office."

This was a big week for job news. This means that next week this column will be digging into the jobs data deeper than most observers. last month was a record month for this website for pageviews. You get it. You understand that in order for this economy to grow we need jobs.

It's the economy.