Reclaiming Common Sense

This Was Jobs Week. The ADP Payroll Report, Weekly Unemployment Report and Jobs Report were released

The first week of the month is normally "Jobs Week." This is the week when the ADP Private Payroll Report, the Weekly Unemployment Claims Report, and the monthly Employment Situation Report are all released. This also means that this column produces forecast articles on the ADP Report and the Employment Situation Report..

.(July 29) The ADP Payroll report is released on a Wednesday, so the Forecast Article needs to be produced before that time. "July ADP Should Show Strength Except IT" examined the month to month growth rates, and annual July to July growth rates  by sector, and as a whole. It was projected that the annual growth rate could pick up from last month's disappointing growth rate. It was thought that we could grow by 199,000 to 224,000 payroll positions, prior to revisions to the May and June data.

(July 30)  The Employment Situation Report forecast article examined the Current Population Survey (CPS) data on jobs and unemployment, as well as the Current Employment Situation (CES) data on worker and wages. It was thought that we would grow the level of non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) Full-time jobs and trim part-time jobs. It was projected that unemployment would fall from the July 2018 level and be higher than the June 2019 level. Construction, Natural Resources (M/L,) Professional Business Services (PBS,) Leisure and Hospitality (LAH,) and Manufacturing. The expectations were for 80,000 to 150,000 non-seasonally adjusted workers to join the workforce. "July Full-time Jobs and Workers Should Rise" goes into the detail of the potential for another record month for workers and jobs.

(July 31)  Wednesday we received a solid ADP Payroll report. We saw month to month growth in all sectors except information and in Mining and Logging, or Natural Resources. "ADP Report 156,000 plus 15,000 of revisions" detailed how we also saw July to July Growth in all sectors except IT and M/L.

(Aug. 1)  The most current, and most ignored, piece of economic data is the weekly unemployment claims data. This week we received the lowest non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) first-time unemployment claims level for the fourth week of July ever. "Record Low First-time Claims Level for Fourth Week of July" also notes that this was the eleventh week this year that the NSA FTU was recorded under 200,000 claims. We had one such week during 2015, two during 2016, and four during 2017.

(Aug. 2) We have a record level of Private Sectors workers and a Record Level of Jobs.  We saw more NSA CES workers join the workforce this July than we saw during the month of July during 2010-2013, and July 2017, and July 2018. That is not what was reported in the SA data. It was reported that we added fewer workers than we added during July 23011-13, and fewer workers than July 2016, and fewer than July 2017. "Record Level of Full-time Jobs and Workers" also illustrated that we had a higher participation rate and a lower unemployment rate than we had during July 2014. The participation rate and unemployment rate fell in tandem between 2010 and 2016. The participation rate during January 2017 was lower than it ever was under former President Reagan.

Future articles will compare the achievements of President Trump with former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush and Obama. Another article will examine the wages and workers data. A fourth article will examine the changes for men and women and the changes in multiple ob workers. We set a July record for Multiple job workers and a record for people working dual part-time jobs for the month of July.

Most people who were looking for Summer work found it during April, May, or June. July can be fairly week. We should see a near record low level of continuing claims by the first week of October. We should also see an all-time record low Insured Unemployment Rate that same week when it could drop below 0.90%. Less than 1%. We may set another NSA CPS jobs record this December as employers "suit up" for Christmas Sales. We could break last year's record of 21 weeks with NSA FTU claims under 200,000 claims. We are 3 weeks ahead of where we were last year.

It's the Economy.