Reclaiming Common Sense

The Week Prior to Labor Day Weekend  was Weak in Data

Revised GDP data, Weekly Unemployment Claims, and the ADP Forecast

The week was slow for new data. The main piece of new data was the Weekly Unemployment Claims report. There were other reports that were released having to do with consumer confidence and consumer spending. The GDP data was revised. The overall trend is still good

(Aug. 28) The ADP Payroll report is released the Wednesday immediately preceding the Monthly Employment Situation report. The ADP private sector payroll data is pointing towards a decent month to month number, with all but Information Technology and (Natural Resources (Mining and Logging) adding to their payrolls. It is possible that all sectors will grow from their August 2018 levels. "August ADP Forecast: Growth Except IT" tells the story.

(Aug. 29) The weekly unemployment claims data should be garnering headlines. "Fifteenth Week Under 200,000 First Time Claims" refers to the non-seasonally adjusted data. Continuing Claims continue to drop year over year, as does the Insured Unemployment Rate.

(Aug 30)  The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data was massively revised last month. There were minor revisions to the quarter to quarter GDP data and the same quarter GDP data. The revisions to the quarter to quarter data meant that we grew at an "annualized" rate of 2.0% rather than the 2.1% reported in the Advance GDP report that was released last month. Consumer Spending was strong. There were revisions to the same quarter GDP data. These revisions offset each other. Consumer Spending was strong here, also. "Second Quarter GDP Revised to 2.0%" goes into the details.

Enjoy your weekend. Hold on to your family. Have fun with your friends, Remember the workers who have built and are building this economy and the country.

It's the economy.