Reclaiming Common Sense

This week was a busy week. It was a good week.

The week began with an Employment Situation Report Forecast Column and an ADP Jobs Report Forecast Column. This week was also the first week of the month so that means that a "Top Ten Article of July" article was written. Thursday was Thursday, so that meant that an Unemployment Claims Article was published. Friday was Jobs Report Day.

(July 31) The Employment Situation Report, or Monthly Jobs Report, is constructed using two databases and a ton of seasonal adjustments. It is almost as important to understand the annual trends for the month of July as it is to understand the seasonal adjustments. "Jumping July Jobs Forecast" examined the unadjusted data and the potential seasonal factors and forecasted a jump in full-time jobs, a potential jump in unemployment, and a probable drop in part-time jobs - leading to a jump in the unemployment rate and a jump in the participation rate.

(Aug 1) The ADP Payroll report is released in advance of the Employment Situation report. This column has had a love-hate relationship with the ADP report - it only provides seasonally adjusted data, the seasonal factors "cannot" be the same as the government data unless they have foreknowledge of the adjustments, and they have slightly different categories. That said, "What to Expect from ADP Payroll Report" projected gains in 9 of 10 ADP sectors.

(Aug 2) There is so much that happens during the course of the month. What are the articles that the readers of this column read during the course of a month? Four of the top ten articles of July  addressed the Jobs Report, three article addressed the housing market, one column was the "Top Ten Article of June" article. one was a week in review column, and one asked if this was a "Retail Ice Age or a Retail Winter."

(Aug 3) We saw the lowest ever first-time claims level, non-seasonally adjusted, EVER. Don't believe me?  Read the article

(Aug 4) Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. We added full-time jobs. We added part-time jobs. The unadjusted workforce participation was up for the second consecutive July. Then there were the revisions. The net-net was that this was a solid jobs report. The article "July Jobs Fireworks" was a little late in its release because the seasonally adjusted data for the Current Employment Statistics data was massively revised, which meant that the tables used to project the combinations and permutations of growth and seasonal factors had to be revised.

The week was a busy week. The week was a good week. We continue to add jobs to the economy. We have the highest level of jobs ever, full-time and part-time combined. We have the highest level of full-time jobs. We have one of the lowest level of U-3 unemployed workers - We had the lowest ever level of July First-time unemployment claims, we had one of the lowest levels of U-3 unemployed workers since 1981.President Trump could see a period of time where there are "no unemployment claims" and someone would say that he is forcing people to work.

It's the economy.