Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

 Annual Growth is stronger in the Mining and Logging and Construction Super Sectors than the Economy as a whole. The non-farm payroll increased by 1.45% from last August, in part because of growth in these two sectors, as well as increases in the number of workers in the public sector saw their best August Growth rates since 2005 during August 2015.and Business Sector, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector, and the Education and Health Services Sector. This has been a recurring theme for a considerable period of time. It is also important to not that the government sector is growing faster than the private sector, as a whole. Both the private sector and the government sector were growing faster during August of 2015 and 2016..

The sector data is important because it shows were we have had improvement and where more improvement is possible.  This is the same data that will be analyzed for many months for the Houston area and the State of Florida to measure the impacts of hurricanes Harvey and Irma, respectively.

It's the economy.

Summer Ended - The Number of Workers Dropped Month to Month in Four Super Sectors. There were noticeable drops in the Leisure and Hospitality and "Other Services" Super Sectors. There were also drops in the Trade, Transportation, and Utility (TTU) Super Sector as well as the IT Super Sector. It will be interesting to see if there is a spike in the number of TTU workers as a result of the recent hurricanes.

Strong month to month growth in Mining and Logging and Manufacturing Super Sectors. This was the best August growth in Mining and Logging since August of 2005. This was the best August surge in Manufacturing workers since August of 1998. Construction also saw a surge in workers. Has the tide turned on these sectors that are still below their August 2007 levels of workers? Note that the overall non-farm payroll growth  was diminished by the slower growth in the Government Super Sector.

Improvement Across Nine Sectors since Last August.The first table displays the August Only data for all the Super Sectors. The Only Super Sector that did not see August to August Improvement was the Information Technology (IT) sector. Only information that can be found in the table is that while the Government Sector has recovered to pre-recession levels, that same sector has fewer workers now than August of 2009. The sectors that have seen the most real growth are the Professional and Business Service, Health and Education Service, and Leisure and Hospitality Super Sectors.

The August jobs report was released last on Friday September 1 at 8:30 A.M. EDT. The mainstream media was done analyzing the data by 9 AM. The report was not as strong as the ADP Jobs Report indicated it would be, end of story. This column analyzed the data for the next week, and then some.

  • "August Jobs Report Better than 2015, 2016" detailed how the Current Employment Statistic (CES) worker growth was better than August 2015 or August 2016.
  • "Five Presidents after Month Seven" detailed how President Trump has added more jobs during his first seven months than Presidents Bush 43 and Obama. While he has not added as many jobs as President Reagan, he has cut the number of unemployed workers more than Reagan. While he did not add as many Jobs as President Clinton, it appears that he has converted more part-time jobs to full-time jobs than President Clinton did.
  • "Multiple Job Workers Near Ten Year High" Details how we set a record for people working two part-time jobs last August, and that the decline in both the Dual PT job worker number and the overall total multiple jobholder number may be due to a conversion from multiple jobs to a single full-time job. It may also be that there was a surge in part-time hiring last Fall in preparation for the November 2016 election.
  • "Women at Peak Full-time Employment" goes into detail how men lost more full-time jobs than women during the Great Recession, how women recovered all of their lost jobs faster than men, and how women work more part-time jobs than men, and calculates the U-7 unemployment rate for both men and women.
  • "August's Aging Workforce" reports that we have a higher participation rate for those over the over the age of 55 now than we had during August of 2007, and calculates the U-7 unemployment rate by age group. we have more people 55-59 years of age working than 20-24 years of age. It was the opposite during August of 2007.

Another way to look at the data is to see which Super Sector of Jobs are doing better, and which are not yet back to August 2007 levels. The people Current Population Survey (CPS) combined part-time and full-time job level was recorded during July 2007. The sector data is the Current Employment Statistics data. The data referenced in this column is the non-seasonally adjusted data.

Four Sectors remain below August of 2007 levels. Yes, there are four sectors that have not recovered during the past ten years to the worker levels they had during August 2007. Those four sectors are almost identical to what this column has identified for months. The Manufacturing, Mining and Logging, Construction, and Information Technology Super Sectors are not at August of 2007 levels.