Another Misunderstood Jobs Report
The Recovery and Expansion Have Reached "All" Corners of the Workforce
This month we have received the first wave of the final economic reports for 2019. We received the December ADP Private Sector Payroll Report, Weekly Unemployment Claims Data, and the December Employment Situation Report. The December ADP report surprised on the high side. There have already been five articles written
- "Dec. Jobs Report: Santa's Surprise."
- "Dec. Wages and Workers - Annual Gains Across the Board."
- "Five Presidents at 35 months."
- "Men and Women Winning This December."
- "December's Graying Workforce"
The media has been discussing the strength in the jobs report for minorities and for women. How does the Jobs Mountain data look for Caucasians, Hispanic Americans, African Americans, and Asian Americans?
Hispanic Americans saw the recovery from the Great recession starting during the Fall of 2011. There are 7.8 million more jobs for Hispanic Americans now than during July 2007, the peak of the pre-recession job market. Hispanic Americans have added 2.825 million current population Survey (CPS) jobs since December 2016. There were 25.450 million jobs during December 2016 and 28.275 million this December. This is an increase of 2.825 million or 11.10%
African Americans regained their lost jobs by the beginning of 2014. There are 3.385 million more African Americans working now than were working during July 2007. There are 1.385 million more working now than December 2016. There were 18.307 million jobs for African Americans during December 2016 and there are 19.692 million now. This is an increase of 7.57%
Asian Americans saw their lost jobs regained by December 2011. Asian Americans have seen the addition of 3.240 million jobs since July 2007. They have added 761,000 jobs since December 2016. There were 9.428 million jobs for Asian Americans during December 2016. There are 10.189 million jobs for them right now. This is an increase of 8.07%
Caucasian Americans regained and maintained their lost jobs during 2019. You read that correctly. Caucasians lost the majority of the jobs during the Great Recession. They are also the majority of the workforce. There were 118.992 million jobs during December 2016 for Caucasians. There are now 122.919 million Caucasians working now. This is an increase of 3.927 million jobs and just 3.30%
Participation and Unemployment Rate Vary by Ethnicity. This conclusion may seem obvious. The actual data may not be as anticipated.
- Hispanic Americans Participation rate 67.05% Unemployment Rate 4.13%
- Asian Americans Participation 63.36% Unemployment 2.43%
- Caucasian Americans 62.96% and 3.03%
- African Americans 62.32% and 6.21%
A participation rate of 67% for the entire population has not been seen since the late 1990s and early 2000s.
How is everyone doing compared to December 2007? This column has written about the effective unemployment rate over the years. A 4% unemployment rate at 67% is not the same as a 4% unemployment rate at 63% participation. The Unemployment rates have fallen for all four categories of workers. The participation rate is still lower today than it was during December 2007 for all categories of workers. We are still missing millions of participants, employed or unemployed.
- We are missing 7.081 million Caucasian Americans
- We are missing 735,000 Hispanic Americans
- We are missing 582,000 Asian Americans
- We are missing 124,000 African Americans.
When these "non-participants" are added into the unemployed workers, these "effectively unemployed workers" the U-7 unemployment rates are
- Caucasian Americans 8.16%
- Asian Americans 7.58%
- Hispanic Americans 6.46%
- African Americans 6.13%
This data needs to be examined. Hispanic Americans and Asian Americans have a higher participation rate than Caucasian Americans and African Americans this month.
We have a record level of December Jobs and December Workers. We have a record level of December full-time jobs. The unemployment rate is dropping while the participation rate is improving year over year,. President Trump and Former President Clinton are the only Presidents who have managed this after their first 35 months in office. People are being paid more this year than last year for what they do. Wages are growing faster than inflation. Men and women are working record levels of full-time jobs this December. We also have an elevated level of multiple job workers (MJH.) The elevated level of MJH means that unemployment levels may decline below their multi-decade low this October. "All" ethnicities are winning in the current economy.
It's The Economy.