This week was a busy week with regard to economic data, chaos in the stock markets, plural, and the threat of a government shutdown. Government shuts down on Fridays, so this shutdown is also known as a weekend. What was reported earlier this week?
(Dec. 16) A rare Sunday article was published in advance of the November New Construction report and the November Existing Home Sales Report. "November Real Estate Forecast: Expansion Continues" detailed how we could see data that could be misconstrued. Construction wanes as the temperatures fall. Sales drop as we approach year end. We could still have our best new construction years since 2008 and an existing home sales year better than 2015, possibly better than 2016, and that 2017 was slightly out of reach due to a lack of inventory.
(Dec. 17) There was an article written earlier during the year where someone was projecting that 10,000 people could be retiring every day of the year. The data was misinterpretted as that they were actually retiring this year. The article "November's Aging Workforce" is a continuation of the "Red, Gray, and Blue" series. Not as many people are not retiring, as is being reported elsewhere. We have a record level of people working who are over the age of 55.
(Dec. 18) We received the New Construction data this Tuesday. The was a considerable amount of angst and hand-ringing regarding "weaker than expected" new construction data. That could have been the case for the past decade. The truth is that we are on track for our best year since 2007. This year should end better for Starts, Units under Construction, and Completions than 2008, 2009, 2010, all the way through 2017. The data was not too hot, and not too cold.
(Dec. 19) We received the Existing Home Sales data this past Wednesday. This was received with hand ringing. too. We set a record average sales price for the Month of November. Inventory dropped October to November, as is normal, while increasing from November to November. Last year we set a record low for November Inventory, so this is a good thing. "November Existing Home Inventory Improved" goes into the data.
(Dec. 20) They still produce the weekly unemployment claims reports. "Weekly Unemployment Data Ho-Ho Low" explains how the non-seasonally adjusted data for first-time claims fell this week and was reported, seasonally adjusted, as increasing from week to week. We have the lowest Insured Unemployment Rate for this week of the year since the program was started during 1967. Check it out.
(Dec. 21) When the new construction data, retail sales data, import/export data, and government spending data is rolled into one report, including Gross Private Domestic Investments, and the data is seasonally adjusted and revised, you get the Third Quarter "final" GDP report. This data will be revised next year. The article "Third Quarter GDP data revised, again" details how the Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) data, quarter to quarter, was revised higher from the "preliminary" value of 15.1% to 16.2%. This, and other revisions, point to a potentially strong Fourth Quarter GDP.
(Dec. 21) This column publishes a number of articles regarding the monthly Employment Situation Report, or Jobs Report. The week started with the "November Aging Workforce" article and ended with "November Men, Women, and Multiple Workers" which examined the changes in full-time jobs, part-time jobs, and multiple job worker data by gender, male and female. There are a record number of jobs being worked by female workers. There is record number of men working full-time and part-time jobs during the month of November. Normally a second article is written regarding the number of Multiple Job Workers. This year the data was included in this article and examined the number of men and women working a primary full-time job, secondary part-time job, two full-time jobs, or two part-time jobs.
The economic data was "Goldilocks" data, not too hot, not too cold, not too hard, not too soft.The problem is that we have Veruca Salt reporting the news."She" wants more. She wants the goose that lays the golden eggs. "She" wants her Oompaloompa to be considered a legal resident alien. The Economy is going strong. There is "chaos" elsewhere. The "Media" want more, like veruca Salt. The strongest third quarter GDP value since 2014, and the second strongest third quarter GDP value since 2005isn't good enough. I wonder if they realize that the fourth quarter GDP tends to be lower than the third quarter. Hmm. Record on-line sales and record December retail sales being reported. I wonder if that will boost GDP? I wonder if that will be reported. Good data ignored. Government Shutdown. Wall to wall coverage.
It's the economy.