Reclaiming Common Sense

This Week we received Weak ADP Data, Strong Employment Situation Data, and Remarkable Unemployment Data


The media was languishing as the market moved sideways in advance of the Monthly Employment Situation. Things were so slow that they had to talk about the "Peloton Princess" practically every day of the week. What are they going to do now that she has a new gig? I know, talk about her instead of the economy.


(Dec. 3) The ADP Private Sector Payroll data is released the Wednesday that precedes the Employment Situation Report, barring holidays. This Wednesday we received the ADP Report and this Friday we received the Employment Situation Report. Monday this column produced a forecast article for the ADP report. "Nov. ADP Forecast: Strong Month to Month Growth" examined the Current Year Growth, the Same Month Growth, and the Month to month Growth data. The Current Year growth was pointing to a slowdown. The month to month data was pointing towards a strong month.


(Dec. 3) The ADP Private Sector Payroll Report and the Government Employment Situation Report rarely align. The ADP data is one data set. The Employment Situation Report is created using two data sets, the Current Employment Statistics Wages and Workers data and the Current Population Survey Jobs and Unemployment Data. The CES and CPS data have had difficulty aligning this year. Why should they align with the ADP data? "Nov. Jobs Forecast: Strong Holiday Hiring" explained how the past two November Hiring periods were the top two since 1979 and how this November could reveal more of the same. Upward revisions to the September October data was expected. A low seasonal factor was expected, adjusting excellent data down to good data. A record low unemployment rate and a 18 year low in the unemployment level were projected. It was thought that we could rival the November Unemployment data for 1999 and 2000. A bounce in Manufacturing was expected with the end of the GM strike. How good could this report be?


(Dec. 4) The November ADP was a solid miss. The "only" good news was that September and October seasonally adjusted payroll data were revised higher from their latest values. "Nov. ADP Misses Low - Just 67,000 Positions Added" reported on the month to month and November to November Gains, as well as the revisions.


(Dec. 5) This year has been a remarkable year for the weekly claims data. It took a headline number of 203,000 seasonally adjusted first-time claims to get the medias attention. "Week 247 of First-time Unemployment Claims Reported under 300,000" explains how the "streak" is still going and how the continuing claims data streak for consecutive weeks under 2 million seasonally adjusted claims continues its march at 137 consecutive weeks.


(Dec. 6)  This column thought that we could have a November that rivaled the past two November Jobs Report. "Nov. Jobs Report: Surprise, Surprise" examined the CPS and CES data. The CES data blew away the ADP data. The CES data also blew away the CPS data. Unemployment fell. The Unemployment rate, unadjusted, matched the record low November unemployment level of 1968 and 1969. This is just the first article covering the November Jobs Report that this column will produce.


The ADP Payroll  Report was weak. The weekly unemployment claims report was strong. The Monthly Employment Situation Report was "of the charts." Don't just take my word for it. Watch the video. While You are at it, watch a video on what happened on December 7, 1941.



It's the Economy.