The CES worker Data is Projecting a Reported Gain

The CPS Jobs Data is Projecting

The monthly employment Situation Report, or Jobs Report, is created using two data sets: The CPS (Current Population Survey) Jobs and Unemployment Data and the CES (Current Employment Statistics) Workers and Wage data. They have been out of sync this year with some months having strong CPS data and weak CES data or strong CES data and weak CPS data. Each data set has a seasonally adjusted (SA) component and a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) component. The values reported are the SA data.The recorded values are the NSA data. Seasonally adjusted CES private sector growth has been reported higher that the seasonally adjusted ADP Payroll growth each of the past four months. What Happened this Month?

Worker gains were expected to be reported. We have reported the addition of Seasonally Adjusted Private Sector Workers 15 of the past 19 years.  All sectors were expected to report growth month to month and December to December. The largest month to month gains  were expected in Leisure and Hospitality (LAH,) Education and Health Services (EHS,) Professional and Business Services (PBS,) and Manufacturing. The quest is whether or not Information (IT) gains or Other Services (OS) gains will be reported. The Month to month growth, depending on the seasonal factors used, were indicating 179,000 to 235,000 positions added

All sectors were expected to report December to December Gains. We could see the largest growth in M/L, as is thought for the NSA data. Other sectors expecting SA Growth over 2% are Construction, PBS, EHS, LAH and Manufacturing. The annual growth was projecting 148,000 to 276,000 workers added.

We have recorded non-seasonally adjusted worker losses 16 of the past 19 Decembers.  It was thought that we could see the gain or loss of 100,000 non-seasonally adjusted workers this December.Month to month growth in Manufacturing, Trade Transportation and Utilities (TTU,) and Financial Services (FIRE) were expected. Net job losses in Professional Business Services (PBS,) Construction, and Government were expected. December to December growth was expected in all sectors reported. The largest annual growth was expected in Mining and Logging (M/L) with up to 8% growth and 3-5% growth in Construction. Government was expected to have the smallest December to December growth rate.   Government should record the smallest NSA Annual gain from December of last year, growing only 0.4% to 0.8%

Non-Seasonally Adjusted CES workers only grew in three Sectors. Trade, Transportation and Utilities, Leisure and Hospitality, and Financial Services led the way. There were declines in all the other sectors. he decline, overall, was 0.11%, comparable to 2017.

We have reported the addition of Seasonally Adjusted Private Sector Workers 15 of the past 19 years.  We have added between 90,000 and 255,000 SA CES Private Sector Workers since 2010.  Down can be reported as up. It all depends upon the seasonal factor used. Last month the creation of 504,000 NSA CES workers was reported as the gain of 254,000 SA CES Private Sector workers.  We recorded a loss of 71,000 workers during December 2016 and reported a gain of 191,000 workers. We lost 117,000 NSA CES workers during December 2017 and reported a gain of 167,000 workers. We could record the addition of zero workers and report a gain of over 300,000 workers this December. Watch the seasonal factor, as shown in the combination and permutation table. A low seasonal factor will lower the seasonally adjusted worker number. A higher seasonal factor will boost the number.

What happened with the revisions to the prior data.  We had a huge spike in NSA CES workers last month even after the October data was revised higher from its advance value. It was thought that the data could even be higher by another 50,000 workers, effectively reducing the 235,000 to 185,000 this month. They know that they will be revising the 2019 data down by 501,000 with the release of the January Employment Situation Report.  This was disclosed this past August.    The Revisions were up 1,000 NSA for October, down 7,000 for November. The seasonally adjusted data was up 1,000 for November and down 10,000 for November.

The Seasonally Adjusted Private Sector Worker data was lower than than the ADP Private Sector Payroll data. ADP came in at 202,000 while the SA Private Sector CES data came in at 139,000 workers. Part of this could be the seasonal factors used to convert the NSA data to the SA data in both data sets. We do not have the NSA ADP data. The Seasonal factors that were used last year would have given us a value of 164,000. The 2017 December seasonal factor would have yielded 147,000 workers added.

The Current Population Survey Jobs Data indicates that we would record net job losses during December. The last time that there were net NSA CPS job gains was during 2006. We can expect 500,000 to 600,000 NSA CPS jobs lost. The CPS data also indicated that we should report net job gains. Once again, this is similar to the CES private sector worker data. What is recorded as down will be reported as up.

We reported job gains after recording full-time and part-time job losses.  We saw the smallest December decline since December 2015. The net seasonally adjusted change was virtually identical to December 2017 and December 2018.

It was  projected that we would probably report and record a drop in unemployment.   Non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rose while seasonally adjusted unemployment fell. This is similar to what happened during 2011. People may be looking for work who are unable to find work.

The Participation rate was the best for the month of December since December 2012. The combination of unemployment and participation was the best since December 2008, with an effective unemployment rate down to 9.02%. The non-seasonally adjusted participation rate was at 63.03%. Next month we should see a spike in unemployment and a drop in participation.

The total number of Multiple job workers was expected to  rise month to month and December to December. It was projected that we would set a December record for MJH. It was also projected that we would set a record for the number of people working two PT jobs (PT PT.) We had over 8 million multiple job holders this December. The 8.058 million this year was higher than last December at 8.030 million. The number of FT PT jobs hit 4.419 million, up from 4.329 million last December. The number of Dual PT workers fell December to December from 2.177 million to 2.072 million. Dual FT job workers spiked from 267,000 to 336,000. More on this in the Men and Women Jobs article.

There are other ways to examine the data. How are men and women doing in the Trump Economy? Will women set another all-time record for total jobs this December? They are almost guaranteed to set a December Record. Men will probably see their level of FT jobs drop and PT jobs grow. This will be covered in the Men and Women and Multiple Jobs article. How is President Trump doing compared to former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush and Obama? This will be covered in the "Five Presidents at 35 months" article. (Hint: His only competition for job creation is Bill Clinton.) What is happening with regard to wages and workers? This will be covered in the "Wages and Workers" article. (Hint: People earned more money by working fewer hours.) Surprise

The level of private sector workers fell a little more than expected while the CPS jobs dropped a little less than expected. Seasonally adjusted unemployment declines after non-seasonally adjusted unemployment edged higher this month. This was a little bit of a Santa Surprise.

It's the Economy.

 Reclaiming Common Sense