This morning, as this week in review column is being written, the media is reviewing the life and service of our 41st President, George Herbert Walker Bush. He said that his three greatest accomplishments were as husband, father, and grandfather. He was also an aviator, a war hero, a Congressman, an ambassador, Director of the CIA, Vice President, and President. A lifetime like that makes a weekly column trivial.
(Nov. 26) The week started slowly. The final week of the month, economically, ended in a whimper with the first revision to the third quarter GDP and the release of the unloved weekly unemployment claims report. This meant that there was a time to create an article that did not deal with a pressing report. "MSM MAGA Recession Mania Misplaced" details why we are not heading into a recession right now. A recession is two consecutive quarters of contracting economic growth. The Great Recession was a housing recession, a jobs recession, and a retail recession. Retail Sales are growing, and on the way to the first $6 trillion retail sales year. New home construction is ahead of the pace set during 2017. New home sales are also ahead of the pace set during 2017. We have more full-time jobs now than we have ever had during the month of October. Unemployment is down. Weekly claims are historically low as calculated as the Insured Unemployment Rate.
(Nov. 28) Wednesday was a "two-fer" with the release of the first revision to the Gross Domestic Product report for the third quarter and the release of the New Home Sales Report" Gross Private Domestic Investments (GDPI) was revised higher from it advance value. "Third Quarter GDP Revised, Unchanged" details the changes and that the economy is still growing at an annualized rate of 3.5% The Same quarter GDP remains at 3.0% and has been rising for nine consecutive quarters. We "need" to see six quarters of declining same quarter GDP and two consecutive quarters of same quarter contraction to be in a recession. We are still rising.
(Nov. 28) The New Home sales data was a bit of a disappoint, and yet still in line with expectations. The number of units sold fell from the level achieved last October. This was the headline elsewhere. "October New Home Sales: Okay" details how there was a new average home sales price record set for the month of October, how the number of units sold is still better during the month of October than we were during October 2008-2017, and how inventory levels are finally at a "normal" level. It is impossible to sell new homes that are not completed and for sale.
(Nov. 29) Thursdays are still the day that we receive the weekly unemployment claims report. This week down was up. We saw the first-time claims data recorded lower than last week and seasonally adjusted higher than last week. "Unloved Unemployment Claims Data: Down is Up" examines the levels of first-time unemployment claims, continuing claims, and the insured unemployment rate data. We have 272,000 fewer continuing claims this year than the same week of last year. Will this continue, and for how long?
(Nov. 30) The final week of the month normally means that the next week will be the week that we receive the ADP payroll report and the Employment Situation Report, or Jobs report. This column has long published articles projecting the potential results of the two reports. There are two data sets used to create the jobs report, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) worker data and the Current Population Survey jobs and unemployment data. "November Jobs Report Forecast: More Growth" Projects strong Non-Seasonally Adjusted CES private sector worker growth, based on month to month trends and rolling year growth, as well as the current year trend. It also, as usual, explains to the need to watch the seasonal factors used to convert the non-seasonally adjusted data to the seasonally adjusted data. It also details how we need to watch the revisions to the two prior months of data. There are also other components addressed, such as the expectations for sector growth month to month and year to year, the changes expected in the multiple job holder data, and the economic urban legends that are being pushed right now.
There are things more important in life than economics. Faith, Family, Friends are supreme. Rest in Peace #41. I wish that I had had the opportunity to meet you.