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Nine Months of  Retail Sales greater than $500B - Here Comes #10


Last month we nearly recorded our seventh consecutive month of more than $500 billion in total non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) MARTS Retail sales. The Total sales for September was recorded at $499.368 billion.We should see at least $1B in upward revisions this month to the September data. Last month we reported our ninth consecutive month of more than $500 billion in seasonally adjusted (SA) MARTS Retail sales. We did not have a $500 billion dollar December reported last year. It was recorded at over $500 billion, just not reported at over $500 Billion.  This month we should record up to $525 billion in sales and may report up to $530 billion in total sales.


Non-seasonally adjusted Retail sales should grow by 1% to 5% month to month. We should see declines in Electronic and Appliance (EAS) sales and Sporting Goods, Hobbes, Books and Music (SGHBM) sales month to month. Part of this decline is seasonal. Part of this decline is a shift to non-store retail (NSR.) The largest month to month gains are expected in NSR, Building Material and Garden Equipment (BMGE,) Food and Beverage Stores (FBS,) Miscellaneous (MISC) Sales, and Health and Personal Care (HPC,) sales. It is expected that month to month sales could rise by 1% to 5%.


Non-Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales should grow 3.75% to 5.75% from last October's Level of $506 billion.  Last month to current year growth rate was 3.37%, the same month growth rate was 3.80%, and the Rolling Year Growth rate was 3.44%. The Current year growth rate is rising because the Same Month growth rate is exceeding the RY and CY growth rates. The largest growth is expected to be seen in BMGE, NSR, FBS, MISC, and HPC. We may see declines in Gasoline Sales (GASS,) SGHBM, and EAS. Net-Net: expect to see SGHBM and EAS sales to record decline month to month and October to October. If we grow 3.75% to 5.75% October to October then we should record total sales of $525B to $535B.


Seasonally Adjusted Retail Growth is slightly unpredictable. Last October all sectors except Furniture and Home Furnishing (FHF) Sales. The largest month to month gains should be reported in BMGE, FHF, EAS, Clothing and Clothing Accessories (CAC,) Motor Vehicle (MVP) Sales, and NSR sales. Seasonally adjusted monthly growth is expected between 0.30% and 1.00%. Last month we had $525B in SA retail sales. This means that we should see a headline number between $525B and $530B.


Seasonally Adjusted October to October Growth is expected in all sectors. Last year we had October sales of $510 billion, so the streak of consecutive months over $500 billion is expected to stretch to ten months. The sectors expected to grow the most are BMGE, NSR, CAC, NSR, MISC, and General Merchandise (GM) sales. Total sales are expected to grow between 3.50% and 5.00%. This means that the SA MARTS data is expected to come in between $525B and $535B.


The same situation that we have in the NSA MARTS data is being observed in the SA MARTS data. Current Month (CM) sales are up more than the Current Year growth rate. The Current Year (CY) growth rate is rising and is poised to pull up the Rolling Year (RY) growth rate.


The September MARTS retail data should record and report a higher number than was published last month. We should have our eighth NSA MARTS month this year over $500 billion in total sales and we should have our tenth month of SA MARTS over $500 billion this year with the release of the October MARTS data. We may even exceed $600 billion in NSA MARTS sales this December.


It's the Economy.