Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

The February New Construction Report May Report a

Record Average Sales Price over $400,000 Next Friday


The Average sales price should be at least $399,900. The average sales price has been initially reported over $400,000 only to be revised lower. The average sales price should rise from last February's level of $370,500 and should exceed last month's $382,700. Expect something in the 380s, anticipate something in the 390s, and do not be surprised by a $400,000 handle.


Supply has been increasing, so have sales. Last February we broke through the 50,000 unit level for February . A level of 55,000 would be normal by historical standards. Expect a number around 55,000 units to 60,000 units.


New home sales should free up the existing home market. This column will produce an existing home report next week.


It's the economy.



The new construction report impacts us all.


New construction helps drive the economy. New Construction bring jobs to construction companies and landscape companies, finance companies and Realtors, Movers and landscapers. New home sales generate jobs in retail and retail sales. We are still in in a new home recovery. What can we expect from today's report?


New Single Family starts have been on the rise. We should see month to month growth. The year to year growth is a crapshoot statistically, it could g either way. The past two February data points have just been under 60,00 units. Expect 60,000 to 65,000 units. This would be returning to the 1991 level of starts.


NewUnits under construction have been soaring. The data has been pointing to 1.2 million units under construction. That should not happen this month. Expect February to February growth and January 2018 to February 2018 Growth. We should be over 1.13 million units and possibly as high as 1.17 million units.


Completions should exceed 80,000 units. Once again the monthly trends do not quite line up with the annual trend. The monthly trend, this time, point to a possible drop in units completed. The Annual data is pointing higher. Completions should exceed 80,000 units and may reach 90,000 units.


New construction is dependent upon supply and demand. What is the supply of workers? What is the demand from buyers. Completion should pick up pace as the weather improves and as people want to get into a new home prior to the new school year. Everything is based on weather and the calendar.