Reclaiming Common Sense

Reaganomics was a term of derision which referenced  to "trickle down economics." Obamanomics was a term of derision for the "Robin Hood" mentality of redistribution, tax the rich, "if you want to keep your health care plan" too bad economy. Now we are hearing about "Trumponomics." WE saw GDP soar under President Reagan. We saw the debt soar under President Obama by more than $10 trillion dollars if you factor in the repaying of TARP debt issued under President George W Bush and repaid under Barrack Obama, What is "Trumponomics?" Is it adding full-time jobs while cutting part-time jobs and while cutting the number of unemployed workers. The September Jobs report recorded   part-time jobs surging and a drop in unemployed workers. "Jobs were Up, Workers were Down."

Full-time Jobs Are Up by over 4 Million. The untold story is that President Trump has overseen the addition of 4.22 million full-time jobs. His first jobs report was the February jobs report because the January collection data was collected prior to January 12th. He took office January 20th. He has also seen the unemployment level fall by nearly 1.6 million workers. When you subtract the part-time jobs  and the part-time jobs that have been "converted" to full-time jobs he has added 2.374 million participants. This is more than President Reagan, President Clinton, President George W. Bush, or President Obama.

What about the Participation Rate? The workforce participation rate started to garner attention during the run-up to the 2008 election. The was barely a mention of it as the participation rate slid from 65.47% to 62.45% during President Obama's time in office. President Trump's non-seasonally adjusted participation rate has risen to 63.00% as of this month. The problem with the normal discussions of full-employment being under 5% unemployment is that these discussions omit the inconvenient truth that unemployment of 4.07% at 63.02% participation is not the same as 4.34% at 66.09% participation. There are some people who are not participating who are not being counted as unemployed. These are "missing participants." They are "effectively unemployed." We used to have more missing participants than we had unemployed workers.  If these missing participants are added to the unemployed then we have an effective unemployment rate closer to 8% than it is to 4%. It is all relative. If you hold the relative number to September of 2006 as was done in the "Jobs Report" article you receive one U-7 value. If you hold the unemployment level at the 2017 level you receive a different value. The main point of the U-7 discussion is to illustrate the difference that participation makes.

President Trump has overseen the largest addition of full-time workers during the first eight months of the Five Presidents. He has overseen the second largest drop in unemployed workers. He has the lowest official NSA U-3 unemployment rate. So what happened last month where the NSA and SA Jobs numbers surged and the worker numbers fell? Next up will be a look at the multiple job worker data. The level of people working multiple jobs jumped from 6.91 million to 7.359 million. Some people are over-participating. The next article will look at this data in detail. 

It's the economy.