Reclaiming Common Sense

President Trump has added Full-time Workers and Cut Unemployment - President Obama Oversaw a drop in full-time workers and a spike in unemployed workers.  This is why it is important to compare the current President with his (or her) predecessors at the same point in their Presidencies. Often a President "inherits" a recession. President Reagan inherited a recession from President Carter. President Clinton inherited a recession from President Bush 41 - although the effects were diminishing. President Bush 43 inherited a recession from President Clinton which was hastened by the events of September 11, 2001 and hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma during 2005, and the recession that happened after Hurricane Ike. President Obama obviously inherited a recession from President Bush 43. Notice that all of these inheritances involved a shift in the party in the White House. President Clinton added more full-time jobs than President Trump. President Clinton also cut the unemployment level more than President Trump. The thing to notice here is that all of the prior Presidents mentioned in this article, Reagan, Clinton, both Bushs and President Obama started with higher participation rates.  It was "easier" for prior Presidents to cut unemployment level because they started at higher levels.

What is the real unemployment rate? The media started talking about the U-6 unemployment rate during the run-up to the 2012 election. The U-6 rate includes those who are working part-time for economic reasons. What is ignored is the participation rate's impact on the unemployment rate and the other way around. President Obama's Participation rate because his unemployment rate fell - His unemployment rate fell because his participation rate fell.President Obama started with a participation rate of 65.47% and ended with a rate of roughly 62.45%. It could have been reported lower. Only President Reagan and President Clinton were able to improve their participation rates through December f their first term. President Trump is closing the gap on President Reagan. This column will be tooting that horn loud and clear when same month participation for President Trump exceeds President Reagan for the same month.  This column will continue discussing the U-7 Effective Unemployment Rate until that time.

The Real Unemployment rate is over 7.6%. When you factor in the growth in population and the drop in the participation rate there are some people who are effectively unemployed. They are not working. They are not unemployed. They also aren't just retiring as the media likes to propose. Last month's "Red, Gray, and Blue" details how the employment levels are higher for those over 60 than would normally be expected. The effective unemployment rate for those over 65 is negative. There are fewer unemployed workers than one would expect.

The net take away here is that the full-time labor force is on the rise. The unemployed worker levels are the lowest a President has seen during his first December in office since 1981. Participation is key. We know that unemployment spikes during January as does the Participation rate. Right now more jobs are being added to the economy than workers. This may mean that wages will rise. The problem is that our participation rate is the lowest it has been for a first term President since President Reagan took office.  It is uncertain when wages will grow and how quickly they will grow. First we have to get missing participants back into the workforce.

Future articles will examine the December data as it pertaining to the "War on (Wo)Men," the "Red, Gray and Blue" of our aging workforce,the changes in the Super Sectors (which ones have recovered, which ones are still recovering, and which one or two may never recover," as well as the changes in those people working multiple jobs.

Unemployment has Dropped under President Trump. Just because unemployment drops it doesn't mean jobs are rising. Just because jobs are rising it doesn't mean that unemployment is falling. President Obama saw a decline in his workforce participation rate and his unemployment rate while in office. Unemployed workers are participants. We could have 159 million full-time workers, 159 million part-time workers, 159 unemployed workers, or a combination of those three equaling 159 million participants and the participation rate would be the same. President Trump has seen the unemployment level fall by 1.8 million workers

President Trump has the fewest unemployed workers of any First-term President during his first December. President Obama had 11 million unemployed workers during his first December. President Reagan had 9.013 million unemployed workers.  President Clinton had 7.959 million unemployed during January of 1993. President George W. Bush (Bush 43) had 7.773 million unemployed workers. President George H.W. Bush (Bush 41)  had 6.647 million unemployed workers. President Trump recorded 6.278 million unemployed.

After 11 Months - Full-time Jobs Up - Unemployment Down

The monthly employment situation report, or Jobs Report, was released this past Friday for December 2017. The ADP Jobs report was released this past Thursday. The ADP report promoted the idea that 250,000 seasonally adjusted workers were added to the workforce. The government Employment Situation Report stated that only 146,000 seasonally adjusted private sector workers were added to the economy. The jobs report article posted on this website this past Friday detailed how the number could have been reported at 256,000 which would be in line with what ADP reported.  This column does not stop its analysis of the Jobs Report right there. There have been many Internet memes that has spurred one article, or a series of articles, to be written. It was reported early on during President Obama's tenure that he had created more jobs than President Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush.The article series "Four Presidents at 81 months," a three part series, detailed how if you compared President Obama to Presidents Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush, all two-term Presidents, at the same point in their Presidencies that President Obama was in fourth place.  This series continued monthly until the "Four Presidents at 96 months" article was written where it was revealed that President Obama left with fewer full-time jobs than were present during July 2007 and that we were missing five to 10.3 million participants and that President Obama's participation rate would have been reported lower if there had not been a Downward Revision of the workforce population. How is President Trump doing after 11 Months?

President Trump has added more jobs than workers since his first month in office. The January jobs report data is collected through January 12th so President Trumps first jobs report was February. This is a good thing. We were shedding full-time jobs and adding part-time jobs through January of 2010. We lost 14.4 million full-time jobs between the peak pre-recession job month of July 2007 through January 2010. This is how President Obama says that he added over 14 million jobs to the economy. We had to lose 14 million full-time jobs for him to add almost 14 million full-time jobs and another 4 million part-time jobs. President Trump has had the most combined full-time and part-time CPS jobs of any of the five Presidents during March, April, May, and all the way up to December, than any of his predecessors. That is what happens in a growing economy. President Trump has added over 3 million non-seasonally adjusted Private Sector jobs this year while the workforce population has only grown by 2 million workers.