The monthly Employment Situation Report was received last week with little fanfare. The "Jobs" Number, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Private sector worker growth rate was better than August 2005 or August 2006. The unemployment rate and participation rate dropped last month - this is called "August." This column writes a number of articles pertaining to the jobs report data, including comparing the most recent two term Presidents with President Trump at his current point in his administration. President Trump has added more non-seasonally adjusted CES workers to the workforce than any of his two term predecessors. How is he doing with regard to the Current Population Survey (CPS) data for full-time workers, part-time workers, and unemployed workers?
Are we really at an Unemployment Rate of 4.53%? We have an unemployment rate that is supposed to be roughly the same as it was during August of 2001. The problem is that the participation rate is 3.77% lower now than it was during August of 2001. Another problem is that the 3.77% in participation rate is "worth more" than an equivalent 3.77% in the unemployment value. If we had the same participation rate as we did during the first term of the other four Presidents then we would have 4 million to 10 million more participants. These "missing participants" are e"effectively unemployed." The good news is that the number of missing participants is dropping and the U-7 Effective Unemployment Rate is dropping.
It's the economy.
President Trump has added more Full-time Jobs during his first seven months than Presidents George W. Bush and President Barrack Obama, combined. It is true that Presidents Reagan and Clinton added more full-time jobs during their first seven months in office. It is also true that both President Reagan and Clinton started with a smaller workforce population. They also started with higher participation rates, as did Presidents Bush and Obama. President Trump was given a Large hole from which to climb. President Trump has added fewer participants that Presidents Reagan and Clinton, in part, because he has overseen the reduction of more part-time jobs than President Clinton, and the reduction of more unemployed workers than President Reagan.
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