Reclaiming Common Sense

The June Jobs Report was released this past Friday. The June Jobs Report was Jarringly Good. We recorded the fifth largest June non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) Current Employment Statistics (CES) worker growth since 1980. We saw the third largest jump in NSA Current Population Survey (CPS) Full-time (FT) Jobs.  We saw a huge spike in U-3 unemployed workers, a drop in NSA CPS Part-time (PT) jobs. This means that the NSA Workforce Participation Rate. We saw "June Wages, Workers, Earnings" improve for almost every sector of the economy. We saw the sectors with the lowest and highest wages record improving wages June to June. Only the "other services and Financial and Business Service Sector saw decline in their weekly wage. The total annual wage rate increase was over 3%, the total worker Growth Rate was up  1.91%. When those factors are taken into account total wages were up over 5%. Only three sectors have not returned to their June 2007 NSA CES worker levels: Information, Construction and Manufacturing. Another way to examine the data is how President Trump is doing after 17 months compared to former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, and Obama.

President Trump has Added Full-time Jobs while trimming Part-time Jobs and the Number of Unemployed Workers. Only President Clinton has done this, of President Trump's predecessors, excluding one-term former  Presidents George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter. President Trump has added 6.9 million full-time jobs, trimmed almost 1 million part-time jobs and trimmed the number of unemployed workers by 1.4 million workers. President Clinton also added 6.9 million jobs. His mix was 5.2 million more FT Jobs and 1.7 million more PT Jobs. Quantity versus quality.

Participation Matters. President Trump has seen his participation rate improve even with a decline in unemployed workers, who are participants. Former President Obama is the only one of the five who saw participation decline after 17 months in office. The problem is that former President Obama left President Trump with a starting level participation rate lower than when President Reagan took office. The participation rate masks the real, or effective, unemployment rate President Clinton had a 6.2% unemployment rate June of 1994 (NSA) compared to the 4.2% this June, so President Trump is winning, correct? The participation rate then was 67.17% versus 63.37% this June. We could have 10 million more jobs or unemployed workers right now.

It's the economy