Reclaiming Common Sense

Two Data Sets - Five Presidents

Winning in Sectors Grown - Winning in Full-time Jobs Created

The monthly Jobs Report can be a market mover. This month we need it to be a market stabilizer. The Market Gyrations have been created by  a fear of the unknown. What is the Coronavirus, or Wuhan Virus? The good news here is that the Jobs data was collected by the 12th of the month, before the major outbreak of the virus. The Jobs Report is created using  two data sets: The Current Population Survey (CPS) jobs and unemployment data and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Workers and Wages data. The headline data is the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) CES Non-farm Payroll (NFP) worker data. The SA NFP data is different from the SA ADP Private Sector Payroll data that was released on Wednesday. The NFP data includes Government Workers.  What happened this month?

The Month to month data for the CES Private Sector was pointing to strong non-seasonally adjusted growth. The Current Population Survey data was pointing towards large gains in full-time jobs, part-time jobs, and participation, even as unemployment fell. This and more was covered in "Feb. Jobs Report Forecast: Covid-19 Proof."

We recorded a month to month growth rate of 0.35% or 228,000 Private Sector Workers added during February. The talking heads were anticipating 175,000 positions to be added this month.  This growth rate is better than February 2019, and it is better than February 2015 and February 2016.  T mi he annual February to February Growth rate was 1.65%. All of this was better than M FT, +expected or within expectations.   This, and more, was discussed in "Feb. Jobs Report: Up Big League."

We have a record level of February Workers this Month. That could not always be said during the prior administration.  We have February record levels of workers in all but two sectors: Information (IT) and Manufacturing. The Manufacturing Renaissance continues this month. It is possible that the current Wuhan Virus situation may encourage American Manufactures to repatriate their production stateside. This was covered in "Record Feb. Wages and Workers."

Every Sector has added workers under President Trump after 37 months in office.  President Rump has overseen the addition of 5.291M workers. This has not been the case with former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, or Obama.

  • Former President Reagan saw declines in Mining and Logging (M/L,) Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, Transportation and Utilities (TTU,) Information Technology (IT,) and Government. (-2.096M Workers Total)
  • Former President Clinton recorded a decline in M/L. (+7.263M)
  • Former President Bush (43) recorded declines in M/L, Construction, Manufacturing, and Professional Business Services (PBS.) (-1.69M)
  • Former President Obama recorded declines in M/L, Construction, Manufacturing, TTU, IT, Financial Services (FIRE) and Other Services (OS.) (-2.449M)

The only two sectors that grew under all five Presidents after 37 months in office are Education and Health Services (EHS,) and Leisure and Hospitality (LAH.) The graphs for this data can be found here.

President Trump has overseen the creation of more total jobs than any of the other four Presidents. President Trump has overseen the addition of 6.7M Full-time Jobs, 771,000 Part-time Jobs, and the reduction of 1.9 million unemployed workers.

  • Former President Reagan +1.9M FT +1.9M PT +661,000 Unemployed Workers
  • Former President Clinton +4.3M FT .2.8M PT -2.3 million U-3
  • Former President Bush +322,000 FT +881,000 PT +2.123M U-3
  • Former President Obama -1.2M FT +1.5M PT +421,000 U-3

The thing to remember is that President Trump and Former President Clinton are the only two Presidents who increases jobs and decreased unemployment during their first 37 months in office.

Participation Matters. Former Presidents Reagan and Clinton were able to increase their participation rates. There was a meme that was on the Internet that was the impetus for the start of the "Four Presidents" Series. It tried to blame former President Bush for the reduction in the participation rate. The participation rate this February (63.24%) is comparable to that of former President Reagan during February 1984 (63.39%) and February 2012 (63.57%) The difference is in the unemployment rates. The rates are 3.79%. 8.45% and 8.71% respectively.  Where the effective unemployment unemployment rates during 1984, when compared with the Participation rate and Unemployment Rate for February 2000, the U-7 during 1984 was 13.39 %, to 2012 at 13.40% and 2020 of "just" 9.17%. We can't have full employment without "full participation." The U-7 Data can be found here.

There are many ways to examine the CES and CPS data.  They are two different data sets. They were rarely in sync last year. President Trump has done some things that no other President has done. Jobs are Up. Workers are up. Participation is Up. Unemployment is down.  The Legacy media wants you to believe that this is backwards looking. More Jobs. More Spending. But let them obsesses over the Wuhan Virus.

It's the Economy.