Five President at 38 Months - Two Data Sets

Former President Clinton and President Trump at the Lead in Both Data Sets

We are in uncharted economic waters. The Current Population Survey (CPS) Jobs and Unemployment data, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Worker and Wages Data,  were supposed to show some strength due to when the data is normally collected. Normally it is collected prior to the 12th of the month. We lost full-time jobs and lost part-time jobs. The worker data also recorded a drop month to month. The difference here is that there was March to March growth in the Current Employment Statistics data. This was covered in  "March Jobs Report (BC) Beyond Crazy."

The Wages and Workers Data showed upward revisions, non-seasonally adjusted, and downward seasonally adjusted data for January and February. Wages soared. We are not in a Worker Recession because the number of March Workers is higher than it was during March 2019. This was covered in "March Jobs: No Worker Recession, Yet."

How Is President Trump doing compared to his two-term predecessors? This column, or its sister site "Reclaiming Common Sense" has been writing an article comparing Presidential Performance sine month 81 of the Obama Administration. There was a meme on the Internet comparing former President Obama with former President George HW Bush (One Term President) and Former Presidents Clinton and  George W Bush at the end of their second terms. Former President Obama still had 16 months remaining, and two of them were January Jobs Months. Originally, this column only addressed the CPS Jobs and Unemployment data. The CES data gives some insight as to the "quality" of the jobs created or lost under a President.

President Trump has overseen the addition of 4.6 Million total jobs after 38 months in office. This doesn't seem like much. Compare what he has done with what his ring the predecessors had done up to March of their re-election years, with regard to Full-time (FT) jobs, Part-time (PT) Jobs, and Unemployed (U-3) workers.

  • President Trump: +5.0M FT (-375,000 PT) (-779,000 U-3)
  • Former President Obama +101,000 FT, + 876,000PT, (-105,000 U-3)
  • Former President George W. Bush +386,000 FT, +1.124M PT, +2.187M U-3
  • Former President Clinton +4.8M FT, +3.2M PT, (-2.5M U-3)
  • Former President Reagan: +2.5M FT, +2.1M PT, +311,000 U-3

There are differences in workforce populations between the five individuals. Former President Obama had to recover the jobs lost between July 2007 and January 2009, lost under GWB, and those lost between February 2009 and January 2010. These two former Presidents had lower participation rates after 38 months in office than they inherited.

The sector data paints a similar picture. President Trump, even after a dismal March, has seen growth in all eleven sectors, adding 7.427 million workers.

  • Obama: Six Sectors Down, Five Sector Up, 929,000 more workers
  • GWB: Five Sectors Down, Six Sectors Up, 307,000 fewer workers
  • Clinton: Ten Sectors Up, One Sector Down, 10.068 million more workers
  • Reagan: Nine Sectors Up, Two Sectors Down, 2.813 Million Workers Added.

This data displays clearly the difference between the data sets. Former President Bush added 1.5M jobs and lost 307,000 workers. Former President Obama added 976,000 jobs million jobs and added 929,000 workers.President Trump has added 4.625 million Jobs and added 7.427 million workers.

This data will change next month, and it will change more e by the end of the year. The Wuhan Virus Coronavirus is "breaking the charts." Normally, we add workers and jobs during March, April, May, and June.  July is also normally a good month for the CPS data. August we see big changes in the CES data. Next month we will receive the Coronavirus Era (CE) data. All. of the gains under President Trump could evaporate next month. It will take a while for a system reboot. Thank you Governors and the Legacy Media.

It's the Economy.

 Reclaiming Common Sense