Reclaiming Common Sense

Trumponomics is working - So are we

This month's Employment Situation Report, the October Jobs Report revealed that the August and September "Jobs" Numbers were revised higher, that we added almost 250,000 seasonally adjusted private sector workers after revisions to the September Jobs number of 65,000 workers.  "October Workers Soar" details how we actually added over 600,000 non-seasonally adjusted private sector workers. This article also detailed how the effective unemployment rate, the U-7, is over 9%. The U-7 compares the unemployment level and participation rate of October 2017 with that of October 2006. How is President Trump doing compared to the past four two term Presidents? Let's Look at the Jobs Data, the Workers Data, and the Unemployment Data.

President Trump has added more non-seasonally adjusted workers than Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush, or Obama. The naysayers will say that President Trump as a larger base with which to work.  What is important to note is that Presidents Reagan, Bush, and Obama inherited recessions. Economic, GDP, recessions coincide with worker recessions. President Bush had roughly the same number or workers after eleven months in office as to when he started. President Obama did not add one worker during his first eleven months in office. Only President Trump and President Clinton had added over 4 million NSA CES private sector workers during their first nine months in office.

The Private Sector Growth Rate is trying to punch through 2.0%. Last year the October Annualized growth rate was 1.69% and falling. This year the October growth rate is 1.74%. This is comparable to the growth rate of December 1989 and October 2006. We appear to need three, four, and five percent NSA CES private sector worker growth to sustain high levels of GDP growth. It could also be argued that GDP growth spurs worker growth.

President Trump has added more Full-time workers than any of his predecessors. President Trump has added over 3.6 million NSA Current Population Survey (CPS) workers while President Clinton added 3.4 million. President Obama oversaw the loss of 2.2 million full-time jobs.

President Trump has added fewer part-time jobs than his predecessors. Part-time jobs fill spaces while employers determine if they need to become full-time workers or if they are going to cut workers. We saw a "Jobs Iceberg" during President Obama's time in office where no new full-time jobs were added to the level of full-time workers at the peak pre-recession month of July 2007. The truth of the matter is that there were 204,000 fewer full-time workers during the January 2017 jobs report period than during the July 2007 jobs report period.

President Trump has overseen the reduction of more unemployed workers than his predecessors. Both President Clinton and President Trump oversaw the reduction of nearly 2 million unemployed workers during their first nine months in office. Presidents Bush and Obama saw unemployment climb. Presidents Reagan, Clinton and Trump saw their participation rates improve during their first nine months in office. Presidents Bush and Obama saw their participation rate diminish.

There are more workers working. Over 4 million new full-time jobs have been created, not just recovered. Unemployment is down. Participation is up. You won't hear much of this elsewhere.

It's the economy.