Reclaiming Common Sense

Fifteen Weeks with Non-Seasonally Adjusted First-time Claims                   Under 200,000 Claims.


We have had remarkable  weekly unemployment claims data. Last week we had the fourteenth week with non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) first-time unemployment (FTU) claims under 200,000 claims. The NSA continuing claims (CC) value dropped below 1.5 million claims, the lowest it has been since November of 1988 and lower than November of 1973. This author published a tweet on Tuesday that projected the first-time claims data for the third week of September would rise 6-10% and still remain below under 200,000 NSA FTU claims. The seasonally adjusted (SA) FTU was projected to fall between 204,000 and 212,000 SA FTU. Another tweet was published that projected a decline in NSA CC data by up to 2% and a projected SA CC value between 1.644 million and 1.700 million SA CC.


What was recorded and what was reported this week?


The Non-seasonally adjusted first-time Claims data remained below 200,000 for the fifteenth time this year. The data for last week was revised slightly higher to 162,333. This week the claims data was recorded at 168,801, an increase of 3.9%, well short of the 6-10% pop that was expected for this week. The reason why we did not see a Hurricane induced pop is that the claims data was collected by Saturday. The Hurricane would not have impacted this week's data. A person needs to be unemployed for a week before they can start collecting benefits. We might see a pop in two weeks, similar to what we saw after Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Harvey. This is a lower population center and only one hurricane, not two. This level of first-time claims is for a covered insured base of 141,951,000 covered insured. We had fewer than 53,000,000 covered insured insured prior to 1971.  We have 26,000 more unadjusted claims for 88 million more potential claimants.


The Seasonally adjusted first time claims data fell to 201,000. The SA FTU claims data was under 200,000 claims during the same week of 1968 and 1969. Up was down.


This week's claims data puts us on track for 17 or more weeks with continuing claims under 200,000. The two closest years are 1973 with 13 weeks under 200,000 claims and 1967, the year the program began, with 19 weeks on non-seasonally adjusted FTU claims. It is important to not that we had non weeks with NSA FTU claims under 200,000 between 1968 and 1971, and we had no weeks under 200,000 NSA FTU claims between 1974 and 2014. You did not hear about the one week during 2015, the two weeks during 2016, nor the four weeks during 2017 because the media covers the seasonally adjusted data.  The NSA FTU claims data traditionally falls through the end of September. It can fall through the end of October. There are stories of increased hiring in advance of the Christmas Crush for purchases and deliveries.


The Continuing Claims data fell to 1.463 million claims this week. This level of claims is lower than it was during November of 1999, lower than it was during November of 1988, and lower than it was during November 1973. If this year we are on-track for similar NSA FTU claims data that were recorded during 1973, the continuing claims data may be lower than it was during October of 1973 when it was 1.252 million claims. We are below last year's current week level by 178,000 claims. If we maintain this pace we could be as low as 1.388 million claims. "Nobody" reports the SA CC value of 1.645 million claims. People are actively ignoring the 1.460 million NSA CC value.


The Continuing Claims Data was "reported" at a level lower than the same week of 1973. The year 1973 keeps coming back in all of the analysis. We had fewer than 1 million NSA CC claims during 1967, 1968, and 1969. We also had tens of millions of fewer covered insured, as already mentioned.


Remember the Disaster Unemployment Assistance Program. This column has written articles with information on this program during hurricane season. Last week's article "First-time Claims Flashback to 1973" included information on the program. This is what was said:


The following is from the Disaster Unemployment Assistance Program website (emphasis added:)

  • In order to qualify for this benefit your employment or self-employment must have been lost or interrupted as a direct result of a major disaster declared by the President of the United States. You must have been determined not otherwise eligible for regular unemployment insurance benefits (under any state or Federal law).
  • Payment will be made to an unemployed worker, who as a direct result of a Presidentially declared major disaster:
  • No longer has a job.
  • Is unable to reach their place of work.
  • Cannot work due to damage to the place of work.
  • Becomes the head of the household and is seeking work because former head of household died as a result of the disaster.
  • Cannot work because of a disaster-incurred injury.


Check with your state for applicable programs in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia.


This week we received excellent unemployment claim data. It was "Kavanaughed." If the media spent as much time discussing the economic data as they spent on Kavanaugh, Tesla, Twitter, or any of the other distractions people would hear about how good the economic data is. Spread the word.


It's the Economy.