Reclaiming Common Sense

The Shutdown is Over - Release the Government Data

The Government data on New Construction, New Home Sales, Retail sales, and the GDP have been held hostage during the Government Shutdown. The Shutdown was "shutdown" and the government was re-opened through February 15th. The main report that was missed this week was the December New Home Sales data. This means that we missed the New Home Sales data for the final two months of the year. Next week we receive the Monthly Employment Situation Report for January. It should be very interesting.

(Jan. 22) The week started by concluding the analysis of the December Jobs Report.  "Aging Workforce: December Records" details how older workers are working more, have higher unemployment levels, and have a higher participation rate than their younger counterparts.

(Jan. 22) The December Existing Home Sales data was released and immediately misunderstood. "Dec. Existing Home Sales:Mixed News" details how even while the units sold during December was lower than expected, we set a Record Average Sales Price for December and saw the inventory level improve from the December 2017 level.

(Jan. 24) The media used to tout a seasonally adjusted first-time  unemployment level under 300,000 claims.  This week we saw a level of 199,000. Ho-Hum. It was reported here.It was projected here.

(Jan. 25) Next week we will receive the January Jobs Report. The data may be skewed by the Government Shutdown. It may not be skewed by the government shutdown. We know that it will be skewed by the upward revision to the 2018 non-farm payroll data of 43,000. The article "January 2019 Jobs Report Forecast" detail how the non-seasonally adjusted data will contract, the seasonally adjusted data will expand, and that the Private Sector Jobs Streak is not threatened. Projections are made regarding the CES worker data and the CPS jobs data. Sector data is projected. Multiple job worker data is projected. Wage data is projected.

Things are looking good. We will receive strong Retail Sales data sooner or later. We will receive good new home construction and new home sales data, sooner or later. The media focused on a shutdown created by a Congress that could not pass a budget by the time they are required to do so: June 30th. It is January 26th.

It's the economy.