Reclaiming Common Sense

Last week we received the Jobs Report Data.

This Week we received the JOLTS data, The Inflation Data, and Unemployment Data

The June Jobs Report, or Employment Situation Report was released last week Friday. This week we received the May Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, the Weekly Unemployment claims data, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI)(Inflation) data, and the June Treasury Statement. There was also time to dig into the Jobs Report data, moth the CES Wages and worker data and the CPS jobs and Unemployment data.

(July 8) The June Jobs report was better than was expected by most observers. This column had projected strong Job and Unemployment data (Current Population Survey - CPS) and strong wages and worker data (Current Employment Statistics - CES.) The average wage increase data was reported elsewhere. What was not reported was the synergistic energy of improving worker levels, improving wage levels, and improving hours worked levels. "June Workers, Hours Worked, and Wages Rose" details how the combined growth rates ended up in Earnings increasing by 6.60% during June.

(July 8) There have been a number of people who want to give credit to the current economy to the former President. If we compare the number of CPS jobs created during the first 29 months under former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush , and Obama with current President Trump the question of who is responsible for the economy is apparent. "Five Presidents at 29 Months: Jumping Junes" reports that only former President Clinton and President Trump have been able to both reduce unemployment and boost full-time jobs.

(July 9) The Jobs Report released this month was for June. The JOLTS report released this month was for May. The CPS jobs data differentiates between full-time jobs and part-time jobs. The JOLTS data is closer to the CES worker and wages data than the CPS jobs and unemployment data. People like to compare the JOLTS job openings data to the CPS unemployment data. You might as well compare the JOLTS data to the weekly continuing claims data."May JOLTS report Records Record Levels of May Job Openings and Quits" details how the most job openings, the most hires, the most total separations, and the most quits are in four sectors. Three of these sectors are in the bottom four for hourly wages.

(July 10) Men lost over 10 million full-time jobs between July 2007 and January 2010. Women lost over 3.5 million full-time jobs during the same time period. There were almost 1.5 million non-seasonally adjusted full-time jobs created during July and over 800,000 part-time jobs trimmed. "Men and Women Swapping Part-time Jobs for Full-time Jobs" examines the CPS jobs data, including the multiple job worker data. More men and more women are working this may than during previous years during the month of May. That could not be said between 2007 and 2018.

(July 11) Non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) first-time unemployment (FTU) claims tend to spike during the first week of July while continuing claims tend to spike during the second week of July. This week's NSA FTU spike was not as large as expected so the seasonally adjusted (SA) FTU claims fell. NSA Continuing Claims rose this week, the fifth week of June. "Weekly Claims Will Start Trending Lower, Again" details the data and the potential for record low first-time claims data, and continuing claims data, this October.

(July 11) The weekly unemployment claims data was released at the same time, on the same day, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. What was this month's rate of inflation? Was it 1.44% or 1.6% or 1.75%? We saw commodity deflation, shelter and service inflation, and a spike in Health Insurance Costs. "June Inflation, What Inflation? Health Insurance" discusses the problems with the inflation data and how the "Phillips Curve" is broken. Is it broken?

(July 12) Thursday was a busy day for economic data. The monthly Treasury Report on revenue and outlays was released at 3:00 PM. This year The we saw tax cuts. Last month the media was lamenting lower corporate taxes as a cause for the growing deficit this year. This month it was recorded that we brought in more corporate revenue this year through June than during the same time period last year. The media was silent. "Tax Cuts are Paying for Themselves" digs into the data.

All of this data is interlinked. If more people are working more jobs, for more hours, at a higher hourly wage then unemployment should be low and individual revue collected should rise. If this is happening then the GDP should be rising, not falling, as is being projected elsewhere. This author is projecting a rate between 4.0% and 4.5% annualized GDP growth during 2019Q2. That data will be forthcoming in roughly two weeks time.

It's the Economy.