Reclaiming Common Sense

This week was a remarkable Week. There was a lot to discuss.

Remarkable ADP Data. Remarkable Unemployment Data. Remarkable Jobs Report

The week started with an ADP Payroll report forecast article, a June Employment Situation Report Forecast, and concluded with the weak ADP report article, the weekly unemployment data, and the Strong Jobs Report article.

(July 1) The week started with the article "June ADP Should Bounce Back from Weak May" projected strength across the board June to June. There was the possibility for some weakness month to month.

(July 2) The article "June Jobs Report Could Be Best June Ever" projected strength in the Private Sector Worker levels, the full-time jobs number, and unemployment. It was projected that we would see a huge spike in full-time jobs, a significant drop in part-time jobs, and the unemployment level rise as workers searched for jobs (all non-seasonally adjusted.)

(July 3) The ADP report was a disappointment. The article "June ADP Reveals Weakness in Leisure and Hospitality" made it appear that we might be in store for a second weak Employment Situation Report (Jobs Report.) Sometimes the ADP report and Jobs Report are out of sync.

(July 4) There were many things happening July 3rd, July 4th, and July 5th. The weekly unemployment claims data was released on Wednesday the 3rd instead of Thursday the 4th. This column published the weekly unemployment claims article on Thursday. "Independence Day Strength in Unemployment Claims" data reported the non-seasonally adjusted drop in first-time claims for the 5th week of June and the slight uptick in the non-seasonally adjusted continuing claims data for the fourth week of June. The insured unemployment rate is at the historic low for the fourth week of June.

(July 6) The Friday Jobs report required, and requires, a considerable amount of analysis. The report was remarkable. It was not fake news, unless you are discussing how the full-time and part-time jobs levels were seasonally adjusted, and how the unemployment level was reported as rising when it should have been reported as falling, even though the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment level rose very slightly. "June Jobs Report Records Record Employment, Jobs" examines the current Employment Statistics worker data and the Current Population Survey jobs and unemployment data. There will be more analysis next week.

It's the Economy