Reclaiming Common Sense

Seriously Good New Home Sales Data - Up, Up, Up

The economic data today included a strong weekly unemployment claims report and the July New Home Sales data. The July Real Estate Forecast article "July Real Estate Forecast: Remarkable" projected a range of 51,000 to 55,000 units sold and an average sales price record of $379,500.

We saw a jump of 10% from 48,000 units last July to 53,000 units this July. The jump fell within expectations. The number of units sold was slightly lower than July 2015. The data from June was revised higher from 57,000 units to 58,000 units so a one thousand unit revision could be expected.  The Average sales price soared from a downward revision of $369,5000 to a new record high for July of $394,300.

Inventory remains solidly above 300,000 units. You cannot sell what is not available for sale. We have seen increases in units under construction and completions. Normally we have 300,000 to 400,00 units for sale. We have had a stretch where we had 400,000 to 500,000 units available. There is room to grow. If we have more inventory we may see more sales. The sales chart and the inventory chart are very similar.

Rolling Year sales up 8.64%. The trailing year data, or rolling year data, is up from 590,000 units to 641,000 units. This makes the projection for next year at this time 696,000 units. The "annualized" seasonally adjusted sales was pegged at 627,000 this July, compared to 556,000 units last. If we are still growing at 8.64% we could see 667,000 units sold by the end of the year. This would be up from last year's 614,000 units.

The current year sales data is up 7.2% from 375,000 units to 402,000. If we continue growing at this slower rate then we would see 668,000 units sold. We are trending with the 1989 data where we ended with 650,000 units sold. This may not sound like much, especially when adjusted for population changes since 1989. The data is awesome compared to the population changes from last year.

To summarize: Sales are up from July 2017 to July 2018. Sales are up from January 2018-July 2018 as compared to last year. The trailing 12 months is at 641,000 units. The current year data is heading toward 650,000 units. If we continue to see sales accelerate at the rate that they have been accelerating then we could see nearly 670,000 units sold by the end of this year.

It's the economy