Reclaiming Common Sense

The July ADP Data came in Better than Expected

The Employment Situation Forecast was for record Full-time Jobs and Workers

The ADP Private Sector Payroll report was released this Wednesday. There was growth in all sectors except mining and Logging (Natural Resources) and Information (IT.) There were 156,000 private sector payroll positions added during July and another 15 positions added to the combined May and June data. This was covered in the "July ADP Report" article.

We continue climbing the "Jobs Mountain." This month we added 611,000 FT jobs and trimmed only 55,000 PT jobs. We have 1.451 million more full-time jobs and 667,000 fewer part-time jobs than last year. This is important because "all recessions are Jobs Recessions." We have more people working this July than last July and more than have ever worked. This was covered in the article "Record Level of Full-time Jobs and Workers." Full-time jobs spiked, and unemployment rose slightly from the June 2019 level. Even so, the unemployment rate was the lowest for the month of July since July 1969.

We continue to climb the Workers Mountain. The non-seasonally adjusted worker data tends to peak during July, drop as workers quit their Summer jobs, and grow through either November or December as their work their Christmas Jobs. Right now we have more workers than we have ever had. We have 13.111 million more workers now than we had during July 2007, the pre-recession peak. We have 24 million more workers than we had at the depth of the recession, January 2010.

Record Level of Workers in seven of eleven sectors. The only sectors with fewer workers than prior to the recession are Government, Construction, Manufacturing, and Information. Construction and Manufacturing have been surging. Government is stabilizing. Information has been sliding since 2001.

We saw non-seasonally adjusted growth month to month in eight of eleven sectors. The forecast article projected losses in Government and IT. The largest growth rates were in Construction, Leisure and Hospitality, and Financial activities. We saw non-seasonally adjusted growth in all sectors except Information, as projected.

We saw seasonally adjusted growth month to month in all but two sectors this month. Mining and Logging dipped, as did Information. The largest gains were in Construction, Financial Activities, and Leisure and Hospitality.

Wages rose by 2.54% - Gross Income Rose by 2.51%. The headline number that you may have heard is the seasonally adjusted quarterly CES jobs wages data where "average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $27.98, following an 8-cent gain in June. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent." The non-seasonally adjusted CES wages data showed wages increasing 2.54%. Some sectors saw their hours trimmed this month. Hours still increased 1.65%. The seasonal factors changes by month and category and year. They can amplify each other or cancel each other out.

Full-time jobs surged this month. The number of workers also edged higher from the June level. Manufacturing and Construction almost have the same number of workers as they had during 2006 and 2008, respectively. We should set a worker record during November or December this year. We may set a CPS Jobs record at the same time. How is President Trump doing compared to his predecessors: Former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush and Obama? That will be covered in the next article.

It's the Economy.