Reclaiming Common Sense

This week was this column's first week back from vacation.

There was considerably good news in The real estate sector.


This column attempts to produce forecast articles and "results" articles with regard to the Jobs Report Data, the Retail (MARTS) data, and the Housing data every month, in a timely fashion. This month a family vacation interfered with a housing forecast article and publishing articles on the new construction data and existing home sales data. This week was a bit of a slow week for other data, allowing articles on real estate to be published.


(June 25) The normal release of real estate reports is New Home Construction, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales. Last week we received the New Home Construction and Existing Home Sales Reports. We will get to those two reports soon. "New Home Sales Best Through May since 2008" may be a different story than what you heard elsewhere. Where the media was focused on a drop in May sales from May 2018 and a drop in the median sales price, this column wrote an article examining the May record average sales price and the situation where we are on track for our best new home sales year since 2008. Good news.


(June 26) The "Great Recession" was a Housing Recession, followed by a Jobs Recession, followed by a Retail Recession. We emerged from the Retail Recession First. We are in a Retail Renaissance. Next, during February of 2018, we finally emerged from the Jobs recession, after recovering and maintaining all of the lost full-time jobs that were lost during the time between July 2007 and January 2010. We have been in an Existing Home Inventory Recession since 2015, at least until August of 2018.  "Existing Home Sales Come to Life during May" details how inventory grew month to month and May to May (this is a good thing,) how the units sold were better than what was recorded during the month of May 2008-2017 (almost matched 2018,) and a record average sales price record was set for the month of May.


(June 27) Unemployment claims tend to increase during the month of June and into the first week or two of July. "More Good News from Unemployment Claims Data" explains that even while there was a slight uptick in both first-time claims and continuing claims, this level of first-time claims and continuing claims were compared to the same week during 1973 when we had 85 million fewer covered insured.


(June 28) Wrapping up the week was a report on the first piece of real estate data from more than a week ago. There has been some concern that new housing starts have been dropping. The other side of that discussion is that new home completions have been rising. This continued this month. Even though new home starts came in lower than May 2018, and even though new home completions came in below May 2018, our starts level is better than 2017, and very close to what we had during 2017. The completions level is ahead of where we were during May 2018. We have more units under construction than May 2018. "New Home Completions on Pace for Best Year since 2007" goes into the details.


If good news is recorded and not reported, did it really happen? (Yes.)


It's the Economy.