Reclaiming Common Sense

The June ADP Payroll Report was released to a lukewarm response. It was a "Goldilocks" number, not too hot and not too cold. The things that are being missed are the revisions, the growth rate, and where we saw growth.

The April and May Data were revised upward. The April data saw a net addition of 7,000 jobs with three thousand jobs added to the prior goods producing number and four thousand to the service sector data. The May data was revised up by 18,000 jobs after the goods sector was revised down by 12,000 jobs and the services sector was revised up by 30,000 jobs. 

The Annual Growth rate was up compared to June 2017 and May 2018. If the economy is growing faster than last month and last year, during the past twelve months, then the economy is still expanding. 

The Only Sector to lose jobs was the IT Sector. This column produced an ADP forecast article that said that the IT sector would be a question mark for June to June Growth and more May to June Growth. The sectors with the highest growth were Natural Resources, Construction, Professional Business Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and the Education and Health Services sectors, all with growth over 2.0%, Construction over 3%, and Natural Resources up over 6% from last June. 

The ADP data is only available in a seasonally adjusted format. We do not know  the underlying non-seasonally adjusted data.  Will we see upward revisions to the private sector Current Employment Statistics (CES) data? Will the CES data show better growth than last month and last June? Remember that the ADP data was upwardly revised this past February and the CES data was upwardly revised this past January, slowing President Trumps Growth Curve.

It's the economy.