Reclaiming Common Sense

Participation was lower for all age groups under the age of 55 compared to prior to the recession. Participation this June dropped from last June for those 35-44 years of age. Participation is down 10% for those 16-19 years of age as compared to June 2006. Participation is up by 4.5%  for those 60-64 years of age. Participation is up 5.2% for those 65-69 years of age.

Some of Junior's Friends Cannot Find Jobs - Pop-Pop Can

The June Jobs Report caught some people off-guard. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) worker data showed a huge spike in non-seasonally adjusted (NSA)workers. The Current Population Survey (CPS) data, NSA, recorded a huge spike in full-time jobs, a significant drop in part-time jobs, and a massive spike in U3 unemployed workers.  The unemployment rate edged higher as more people re-entered the job market. The CPS survey respondents were basically answering that they were looking for work and unable to find it. So far this column has published the following articles:

Not all jobs are created equally. We saw a huge spike in full-time jobs this month. We saw wages surge in sectors where employment had been trailing in recovery. President Trump is seeing job growth not seen since Bill Clinton, and it is in full-time job growth. Our workforce has been aging since the recession. What happened this June?

There was a huge spike in teen jobs and for those under 24 years of age. Nearly one million jobs, full-time or part-time, were created for teens this June. Nearly 400,000 jobs were created for those 20-24. These gains more than offset the loss of jobs for those  aged 30 through 69. Jobs improved for those 70-74 years of age. It is interesting to note that even with the month to month declines in jobs that there were June to June increases for those 25-34 years of age, 40-49 years of age, and 55-64 years of age. We have a record level of non-seasonally adjusted job for those over the age of 60 for the month of June.

People over 55 are over-participating, while people under 25 years old are under-participating. The slide in the participation rate, for the whole country, has been blamed on a graying Baby Boomer population. The percentage of the workforce for those age groups between 30-54 has declined since the recession, while the percentage of the population for those groups  over the age of 55 have increased.  Those over the age of 55 are "over-participating." If the same process is used to compete the effective unemployment rate by age group as was done in the "Five Presidents" article then there is a negative unemployment rate for those over the age of 55. It is also apparent that we have an unemployment problem for those under the age of 39.

Not all jobs are created equally. Junior may not be able to find a job. Mom and dad may be having a difficult time finding a job. Grama and Gramps may be working in their twilight years. This was a great jobs report. There are some items that jumped off the pages in all of the analysis articles. Men are working more dual full-time jobs. Women are working more dual part-tie jobs. "Dirty fingernail" jobs are paying more money and are seeing continued strengthening. Wages are up. Workers are up. Also, when the June JOLTS Report is released, remember that comparing job openings to unemployed workers, especially when not factoring in participation rates, is specious.

It's the economy.

Unemployment, while at near historic lows, is higher for those 55 and older than it was during June 2006. Even after a solid month of hiring for those under the age of 25, the level of unemployment for those 20-24 is comparable to June 2006. An interesting phenomenon of the Great Recession is that in addition to a graying of the workforce there has been a graying of the unemployed worker.Unemployment among those over the age of 70 has declined since June 2017.