Reclaiming Common Sense

Month to Month Sales Should Fall While Annual Growth Grows

The annual sales have been growing, regardless of what those who follow the seasonally adjusted sales tell you. This column has provided information on the difference between seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted sales. The non-seasonally adjusted data has been growing while seasonally adjusted data have been slowing. What can we expect this month?

Month to month expect declines in all sectors except Hobby and Gasoline.  This is the month between Memorial Day and Independence Day. It happens like clockwork.

June to June expect everything to improve except Hobby and Electronics/Appliances.  Expect a growth rate over 5%. Full-time jobs are up. Wages are up. Real Earnings are Up. Sales will rise year over year.

It's the economy.