Reclaiming Common Sense

How Low Will Unemployment Claims Data Fall This Year?

When will they report the good news?

Normally the first-time claims (FTU) hit a low during the first week of June before hitting a mini-spike during the first week of July. Then non-seasonally adjusted (NFS) FTU then generally trends lower until the final week of September with some ups and downs along the way. We have already had more weeks with the NSA FTU under 200,000 claims this year than all of 2014, 2016, 2016 and 2017 with nine weeks of NSA FTU under 200,000 claims. The Continuing Claims (CC) data has been consistently lower than the same week data that was recorded last year. The Insured Unemployment Rate (IUR) is approaching 1.00%. Last year was the first time since 1967 when the IUR was under 1.00%. What was recorded (NSA) and what was reported (SA) this week?

The Non-seasonally adjusted first time claims 219,892. It was projected that the NSA FTU claims data could rise 7% to 22% this week from last week's 188,700. It was expected in the 13%-16% range. The jump was 16.53%. This is only slightly higher than last year's 219,289. Remember that last year we had 141.4 million covered insured and that this year we have 143.6 million covered insured. Two thousand claims for 2.2 million workers.

The Seasonally Adjusted FTU claims number was reported at 222,000. This is well below the "300,000 benchmark." This could have been reported in the 223,000 to 229,000 range. Still Historically Low.

The NSA Continuing Claims Value was recorded at 1.534 million claims. This was a slight uptick from 1.521 million claims.  It was projected that it could drop or increase by 1.0%. The NSA CC data rose by 0.81%. Remember that this is 25,000 fewer claims than the same week last year. It is also 100,000 more than were recorded the same week of June 1976 when there were 87 million  FEWER covered insured. That is a good exchange: 100,00 continuing claims for 87 million covered insured.

The SA CC value was reported at 1.695 million claims. This is below the 1.7 million that was expected. This is also a continuation of the under 2 million claims streak which is starting year three.

The Uninsured Unemployment Rate was recorded at 1.07%. This is a lower IUR than any other year at this point of the year. The IUR is the percentage of covered insured receiving continuing claims.

Why aren't most Americans aware of this? There was a recent Quinnipiac Poll that said that 71% of Americans view the Economy as Good or Excellent.That same poll has 75% of the respondents saying that they are better off or the same as they were before the election with 52% saying that they are better off than they were before the election. Could it be because the media has spent "71% of the time" discussing Russian Collusion, Obstruction, and Tweetstorms?

It's the Economy.