Reclaiming Common Sense

This week was "Jobs Week" with the release of the January ADP Private Sector Payroll Report, the January Employment Situation Report and the Weekly Unemployment Claims Report.  The Legacy Media was focused on the Coronavirus, or the Wuhan Virus, which is 98% contained to China, and the tumbling Stock Market that appears to have been created by the Legacy Media's Coverage of the Wuhan Virus.


(Mar. 3) The week started with the ADP Payroll Report Forecast article "Feb. ADP: Revisions and Strong Growth Expected." Some in the media were predicting a number well below 200,000 "because of the Wuhan Virus." This column was looking for month to month growth in all sectors except mining and logging and February to February growth in all sectors except Trade, Transportation and Utilities (TTU.) It was thought that a number between 240,000 and 260,000 new payroll positions was possible this month.


(Mar. 4) Wednesday we saw the release of the ADP Payroll report. "Feb. ADP: Cure for the Wuhan Virus" was asking whether or not a strong ADP Payroll number would boost he market and bump the Wuhan Virus from the headlines for a day or even an hour. Last month the Current Employment Statistics data was revised. This month the ADP data was revised back to 2003. This changed everything. The headline number was 183,000. This was better than the revised 2019 data of 153,000 positions. It was interesting that there were month to month and February to February declines in M/L, Manufacturing, and IT.


(Mar. 5) Thursday we saw Weekly Unemployment Claims history ignored. We had our 260th consecutive week with the Seasonally Adjusted First-time Unemployment claims data reported under 300,000 claims. The  article "Five Straight Years First-time Claims Under 300,000" discusses the 150th consecutive week than the Continuing claims data has been reported under 2.0 Million, and the low issuance rates for first-time claims and continuing claims.


(Mar. 5) This column has been writing Employment Situation Forecast Articles for years. This article "Feb. Jobs Report: COVID-19 Proof" was written the day before the release of the report. The forecast report takes into account the CES Workers and Wages data and the CPS Jobs and Unemployment Data. This data was collected before the Wuhan Virus Mania kicked into overdrive. It was expected that we would see private sector data data would be strong and that the Government Sector data would boost the Non-Farm Payroll data.  The month to month growth was projecting between 209,000 and 312,000 private sector workers joining the workforce. The annual data was pointing between 186,000 and 340,000 workers being added during February. The overlap indicated that 250,000 was very possible, depending on the seasonal factors and the revisions. Last year the seasonal factors turned a strong Non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) number into a weak seasonally adjusted (SA) number.


(Mar. 6)  The February Jobs Report was remarkable. This is not a rear-view mirror jobs report, as some in the Legacy Media were stating. This is forward looking. Unemployment remained at near historic lows. Worker growth was recorded, non-seasonally adjusted, February to February in all sectors. Month to month growth was recorded in all sectors except Mining and Logging. There were 444,000 NSA private sector workers added. This means that 228,000 SA CES private sector workers were added. It could have been reported higher. "Feb. Jobs Report: Up Big League" explains how we have the lowest February U-3 Unemployment level since February 1979 and the Lowest February Unemployment Rate since February 1967. The February Participation Rate is the Highest Since February 2012 with Unemployment dramatically lower than it was then. February 2012: Participation 63.57% Unemployment 8.71%. This month we had a Participation Rate of 63.26% and an unemployment rate of 3.79%. This was ignored.


What did the Legacy Media decide to analyze to death this week? Candidate Biden's Bidenisms? His Primary Wins?  The President Trump Rallies? Coronavirus? Here is the current data on the Wuhan Virus:

  • 102,469 Cases Worldwide 80,651 China (78.71%) 327 in USA (0.032%)
  • Deaths Worldwide 3491 China 3069 (87.91%)
  • Recovered 57,436 (56.05%)
  • Net Cases 41,542

The Wuhan Virus is virtually contained to China and Europe.  An interesting note is that the "International Conveyance" number is now reported as "Other." These others are  still most likely those people who were on airplanes and cruise ships.


Next week we will receive the February ADP and February Jobs Report data We will also receive some outstanding first-time claims data. Stay tuned to this website if you want economic data.  If we are lucky, this data should be good enough to assuage fears of the Wuhan Virus and cause the markets to rebound.


It's the Economy.


PS. Spring Forward.



This week was "Jobs Week" with the release of the January ADP Private Sector Payroll Report, the January Employment Situation Report and the Weekly Unemployment Claims Report.  The Legacy Media was focused on the Coronavirus, or the Wuhan Virus, which is 98% contained to China, and the tumbling Stock Market that appears to have been created by the Legacy Media's Coverage of the Wuhan Virus.


(Mar. 3) The week started with the ADP Payroll Report Forecast article "Feb. ADP: Revisions and Strong Growth Expected." Some in the media were predicting a number well below 200,000 "because of the Wuhan Virus." This column was looking for month to month growth in all sectors except mining and logging and February to February growth in all sectors except Trade, Transportation and Utilities (TTU.) It was thought that a number between 240,000 and 260,000 new payroll positions was possible this month.


(Mar. 4) Wednesday we saw the release of the ADP Payroll report. "Feb. ADP: Cure for the Wuhan Virus" was asking whether or not a strong ADP Payroll number would boost he market and bump the Wuhan Virus from the headlines for a day or even an hour. Last month the Current Employment Statistics data was revised. This month the ADP data was revised back to 2003. This changed everything. The headline number was 183,000. This was better than the revised 2019 data of 153,000 positions. It was interesting that there were month to month and February to February declines in M/L, Manufacturing, and IT.


(Mar. 5) Thursday we saw Weekly Unemployment Claims history ignored. We had our 260th consecutive week with the Seasonally Adjusted First-time Unemployment claims data reported under 300,000 claims. The  article "Five Straight Years First-time Claims Under 300,000" discusses the 150th consecutive week than the Continuing claims data has been reported under 2.0 Million, and the low issuance rates for first-time claims and continuing claims.


(Mar. 5) This column has been writing Employment Situation Forecast Articles for years. This article "Feb. Jobs Report: COVID-19 Proof" was written the day before the release of the report. The forecast report takes into account the CES Workers and Wages data and the CPS Jobs and Unemployment Data. This data was collected before the Wuhan Virus Mania kicked into overdrive. It was expected that we would see private sector data data would be strong and that the Government Sector data would boost the Non-Farm Payroll data.  The month to month growth was projecting between 209,000 and 312,000 private sector workers joining the workforce. The annual data was pointing between 186,000 and 340,000 workers being added during February. The overlap indicated that 250,000 was very possible, depending on the seasonal factors and the revisions. Last year the seasonal factors turned a strong Non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) number into a weak seasonally adjusted (SA) number.


(Mar. 6)  The February Jobs Report was remarkable. This is not a rear-view mirror jobs report, as some in the Legacy Media were stating. This is forward looking. Unemployment remained at near historic lows. Worker growth was recorded, non-seasonally adjusted, February to February in all sectors. Month to month growth was recorded in all sectors except Mining and Logging. There were 444,000 NSA private sector workers added. This means that 228,000 SA CES private sector workers were added. It could have been reported higher. "Feb. Jobs Report: Up Big League" explains how we have the lowest February U-3 Unemployment level since February 1979 and the Lowest February Unemployment Rate since February 1967. The February Participation Rate is the Highest Since February 2012 with Unemployment dramatically lower than it was then. February 2012: Participation 63.57% Unemployment 8.71%. This month we had a Participation Rate of 63.26% and an unemployment rate of 3.79%. This was ignored.


What did the Legacy Media decide to analyze to death this week? Candidate Biden's Bidenisms? His Primary Wins?  The President Trump Rallies? Coronavirus? Here is the current data on the Wuhan Virus:

  • 102,469 Cases Worldwide 80,651 China (78.71%) 327 in USA (0.032%)
  • Deaths Worldwide 3491 China 3069 (87.91%)
  • Recovered 57,436 (56.05%)
  • Net Cases 41,542

The Wuhan Virus is virtually contained to China and Europe.  An interesting note is that the "International Conveyance" number is now reported as "Other." These others are  still most likely those people who were on airplanes and cruise ships.


Next week we will receive the February ADP and February Jobs Report data We will also receive some outstanding first-time claims data. Stay tuned to this website if you want economic data.  If we are lucky, this data should be good enough to assuage fears of the Wuhan Virus and cause the markets to rebound.


It's the Economy.


PS. Spring Forward.