Reclaiming Common Sense

The March Jobs Number were Lower than March 2019

The March Worker Number was Higher than March 2019

We are in uncharted economic waters. This data was supposed to show some strength due to when the data is normally collected.Normally it is collected prior to the 12th of the  we lost full-time jobs and lost part-time jobs. The worker data also recorded a drop month to month. The difference here is that there was March to March growth in the Current Employment Statistics data.

This March was not as bad as March 2009. That is not saying much. We saw the seasonally adjusted private sector reported as dropping by 715,000 workers. Reality, the non-seasonally adjusted data, was "only" down 329,000 workers.The good news is that January and February saw their numbers revised higher, non-seasonally adjusted. January was revised higher by 32,000 private sector workers from 127,524,000 to 127,556,000. February was revised higher by 64,000 workers from 127,968,000 to 128,032,000 workers. Why were the seasonally adjusted private sector numbers revised lower? January was revised lower by 43,000 workers and February was revised lower by 27,000 workers. This was covered in "March Jobs Report (BC) Before Coronavirus."

We have more workers than any prior March. I am willing to bet that this was ignored, al most entirely ignored, with other in the media. There are two sectors that have been lagging during the Recovery after the 2008-2010 Recession, those being Information (IT,) and Manufacturing. Manufacturing and IT both grew March to March. IT grew month to month, as well.  The only sectors that decline month to month were Leisure and Hospitality (LAH,) and Mining and Logging (M/L.) We also saw month to month gains in Construction and Government. The total number of workers rose from 126.473 million in the private sector last March to 127.703 million this March or 1.23 million more workers. The Non-Farm Payroll number rose from 149.359 million to 150.804 million or 1.445 million more workers. We have 225,000 more government worker this March than last March.

President Trump has seen all sectors add workers during his time in office. This will be covered in more detail in the "Five Presidents" Article. Former President Clinton saw ten out of eleven sectors rise during his first 38 months in office. President Reagan had five sectors up and six sectors down. Former President George W Bush had six sectors down and five sectors up. Former President Obama had eight sectors down and only three sectors up.

Hourly Wages Rose over 3%, Hours increased by 1.75% and Total Earnings were up 4.75%.  People were not concerned with regard to the March wages this month as Unemployment Spiked and participation dropped, per the CPS data. All sectors saw wages rise March to March. Leisure and Hospitality saw the number of workers and hours worked drop. This should have been good news.

What's next? Next week this column will write articles comparing President Trump to his predecessors in the "Five Presidents" series. He still has overseen the creation of more full-time jobs than former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, and Obama after 38 months in office. The number of total jobs are down over the level of March 2019 so we should see men and women working fewer jobs than last year. The multiple job holder data did dip month to month. We will receive the Regional and State data in two weeks. This receives some attention in this column during a crisis (Hurricane Harvey and Irma.) It may or may not receive much attention elsewhere. Stay tuned.

It's the Economy.