Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

Viva the Renaissance


The retail economy is one of the four main components of the Gross Domestic Product, through the Personal Consumption Expenditures category, The other three components are Gross Private Domestic Investments, Imports/Exports, and Government Expenditures. The non-seasonally adjusted retail sales data has been very strong. We had a record year of retail sales during 2017. We recorded the best January ever for retail sales. The same could be said regarding February retail sales. We are not in the middle of a Retail Ice Age. We are in the Retail Renaissance. We are changing how and where and when we shop. Non-store Retail is marching forward. The March retail forecast article projected huge month to month gains in retail sales across the board, in all twelve sectors. It was projected that three sectors could be down from where they were last march: the Electronic and Appliance segment, the Clothing and Clothing Apparel segment, and the Sporting Goods and Hobby Segment.


All Sectors Grew Month to Month this Year. This is significant. The level of month to month increase for the total March retail sales was the best since March 1996. This data reveals that while not all sectors had their best February to March gains on record, the across the board nature of the increases is remarkable. Food and Drinking Places were up over 15%. Furniture sales we up over 17% from their sales level during March 2017. Clothing sales were up 19%. The month to month total growth rate exceed 16%


Only The Sporting Goods Sector is Below where it was last March. Food and Beverage store sales spiked this March compared to last March. Automobile sales were up solidly at 4.01%. Gas station sales were up over 6%, as were clothing and non-store retail sales. Food and beverage stores were up 5.87%. Furniture sales and Building Material/Garden Supplies sales were up 4.05% and 3.79%.


The Current Year data is More than 4% ahead of last year's record year. The total year sales last year was the best ever. If we grow at the current year growth rate we will break through the 6 trillion dollar level. January was better than January 2017. February was better than February 2017. If we continue growing at this rate, if we have a banner March new construction number, then the total year GDP could be up well over 3% and approach 4% or higher.


This was an awesome report. Quarter to Quarter Changes were comparable to last year. meaning GDP could be below 2.9% and possibly over 2%, higher than last year's first quarter value. Annualized same quarter growth is ahead of last year, so Real GDP should tick up from last quarter's 2.6% rate. More later after the new construction data is released.


It is the economy.