This is Memorial Day Weekend. The Memory of those who died in the service of our country and those who served the country and lived a long live life thereafter should be foremost in our thoughts this weekend. This week was memorable because of the data that was in the news and how it was, or was not, reported.
(May 21) There has been considerable discussion regarding wage growth, or the lack thereof, with the release of the monthly jobs report. The mainstream media is attempting to dictate a "Goldilocks" pay raise. Is an annual raise 2.9% good enough? Is 3.1% too hot? "April Wage Data Really Was That Good" details how the data that is published in the monthly jobs report is misleading. Wages are up. Workers are up. Gross annual wages, and therefore gross annual spending, are up.How hot a wage you are receiving depending on the sector in which you work.
(May 22) The Media conflated two concepts in one misleading headline that I heard on the radio. Ten thousand people are turning 65 each day this year. People who are 65 normally retire each year. QED ten thousand people are retiring each day. "Are 10,000 People Retiring Daily" is the headline for this month's installment of the "Red, Gray, and Blue" series. Are we really seeing 3.65 million people retiring each year? If so, why do we have record levels of people over the age of 60, 65, 70, and 75 years of age working? Hint: the article that was being misrepresented also said that while 10,000 people are turning 65 each day, many of them are delaying retirement.
(May 23) Last week we received solid New Construction data, the best since 2007, still weak by historic, pre-housing recession, standards. We saw an record April Average Sales Price set. We also saw over 60,000 units sold, comparable to what we saw during April 1992 and higher than the April data for 2008 through 2017. "April New Home Sales Surged" goes into the details.
(May 24) Thursday we received some seriously good unemployment data. It was ignored by the mainstream media. "Weekly Unemployment Claims Bode Well" detailed how the first-time claims number is still near historic lows for the current week of the year. The continuing claims data that was reported this week were recorded during the time closest to the collection of the May Employment Situation Report collection date. How low can the official U-3 level unemployment level fall this month? Remember that the weekly claims data measures those who are still receiving benefits and the U-3 level measures those who are out of work, looking for work, and may not be receiving unemployment benefits.
(May 24) If you have a home to sell, or if you want to buy an existing home, then you know that inventory has been an issue for a considerable period of time. "Seriously Good April Existing Home Sales Data" explains how April sales, non-seasonally adjusted, were up over April 2017. That wasn't what was reported elsewhere because they focus on the seasonally adjusted data. The rolling year sales data improved every so slightly compared to April 2017. The current year data is trending almost identically to where we were last April, even with a slightly lower inventory level. Inventory did spike this past month. Oh, and we set an Average Sales Price record for April. Other than that....
(May 25) I did some research for the May Jobs Report. An article will be forthcoming.
Wages up. New Home Sales Up. Existing Home Sales Up. Unemployment claims seriously low. What does the media discuss? Spygate? A North Korean temper tantrum? Rising gasoline prices in advance of the Memorial Day Weekend (That never happens, right?) Oh, by the way, crude prices declined this week. That means we should see gasoline prices drop sometime after Tuesday.