Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

This Was "Jobs Week"


This week we received economic data via the ADP payroll report, the Employment Situation Report, and the Weekly Unemployment Claims Report. This column wrote articles on all three reports and also forecast articles for both jobs reports.


(May 1) The first article this week was the "April Jobs Report Forecast: Popping Good." It was thought that unemployment could drop significantly. It was thought that we could add over 1 million non-seasonally adjusted CES private Sector workers. It was thought that we could see a spike in full-time jobs. It was thought that the seasonal factors would cause the seasonally adjusted CPS jobs data to go negative and cause the seasonally adjusted participation rate to fall.


(May 2) The second forecast article of the week was the ADP forecast. "April ADP Forecast: Up for All Sectors" saw the possibility that The month to month annual ADP growth rate, and the same month levels, have been up, even after the massive revisions to the ADP data. There was concern that the month to month growth could be down for Construction. There was concern that the April to April growth might be down for Natural Resources. These are the "dirty fingernail jobs" that have been doing well, so that was dismissed.


(May 3) Wednesday was the release day for the ADP Payroll Report. The "April ADP Report Revealed Growth in Good Producing Sectors." We saw month to month seasonally adjusted payroll decrease in the Trade, Transportation and Utility Sector as well as the Information Sector. We also saw an April to April decline in Information payroll, too. The ADP number came in at 205,000.


(May 3) Unemployment is falling. The Thursday Weekly Unemployment Claims Report is still produced. We saw the "Lowest First-time Unemployment Claims Level Since September 23, 1973" recorded this week to a level of 186,049. Under 300,000 seasonally adjusted (SA) first-time unemployment (FTU) claims used to be the sign of a healthy economy. What will they do when it drops under 200,000 SA FTU? If you don't believe me that the NSA FTU level dropped below 200,000, again, here is the link to the report.


(May 5) Unemployment Levels dropped to the lowest April Level, Non-seasonally Adjusted, since April 2000. "April Jobs Report: Unemployment Level under 6 Million" details how, as anticipated, unemployment fell so much that it caused the seasonally adjusted Participation rate to fall, even as we added 916,000 non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) full-time jobs, according to the Current Population Survey Data, and we added 988,000 NSA Current Employment Sector Workers.


The data is the data. The data that is reported is the seasonally adjusted data. The seasonal factors that convert the non-seasonally adjusted data to the seasonally adjusted data change from week to week, month to month, and year to year. The data often has advance values, preliminary values, and "final" values. The final values are revised during annual reviews of the data.Watch the data. Watch the revisions.


It's the economy.