Reclaiming Common Sense

We are not in a Retail Ice Age - We are in a Retail Renaissance
May MARTS Retail  Eclipses $500 Billion for Second May Ever

We have had record January Retail sales data, record February Sales data and record March and April Sales Data, non-seasonally adjusted. The May MARTS report was anticipated to report the Non-seasonally Adjusted Month to Month data to spike across the board and non-seasonally adjusted May to May Growth is expected in all sectors. The seasonally adjusted data painted a similar picture.  We have seen some weakness in Appliances and Electronics (AE)  and Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Books, and Music (SGHBM) may show weakness in their growth. The same could be true for Gasoline sales. The non-seasonally adjusted data pointed toward strengthening current year sales, improving rolling year sales, and potentially a 5%-7.5% jump in May only data. All of this was covered in "May Retail Report Could Be A-May-Zing."

Last Week the non-seasonally adjusted data recorded annual growth of 3.21%, non-seasonally adjusted for the Current Year. This is an improvement from the upward revised 3.13% during April and up from the 2.28% growth during March. The current year growth is accelerating. This month we were up 3.48% over the May 2018 level. The same month growth is pulling up the current year growth rate. Ironically, both are pulling down the trailing year growth rate. We were growing at 5% last year. The Current Year Growth rate should surpass the trailing year growth rate within the next one of two months. The economy is expanding after slowing the strongest growth rate since emerging from the Great Recession. We are in a Retail Renaissance.

This was the best Total May MARTS Revenue Month Ever at $549.391 Billion. All sectors were expected to grow month to month and May to May. All sectors did grow month to month.Not all sectors grew May to May. There was strong growth May to May in General Merchandise Sales, Motor Vehicle and  Auto Parts Sales, Health and Personal Care Sales, and the best growth rate was in Non-Store Retail Sales. It was also the third consecutive month with over a half billion in retail sales. Last year we only had five months with over $0.5T in sales during the entire year.

The April data was revised higher by 3 billion dollars. Motor Vehicle retail was revised higher by $793B, Non-store retail was revised higher by $523B, Building Material and Garden sales were revised higher by $353B, and Gas Station sales were revised higher by $308B

Three consecutive months with over $500B in retail sales, five best months for current month data this year, and the "gasoline stimulus" in place. We are on track for our second $6T retail sales year.

It's the Economy.