Reclaiming Common Sense

If Good News is Recorded and Not Reported Did It Really Happen?

Low Inflation - Unreported Record Retail Sales Records

Impeachment Inquiry or Inflation. First-time unemployment claims or Foreign Interference? Last Second Penalty in a football game or more than 240 weeks of record low unemployment?

(Nov. 12) This column often produces forecast article for certain government reports, including the monthly Employment Situation Report, the New home Construction, New Home Sales, and Existing Home Sales data, as well as the monthly Retail Report. The article "Expecting All Retail Sectors to Report Growth" used  the month to month and October to October data to project the possible growth in non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data.

(Nov. 13) This week we received information regarding the inflation rate for the US economy. Shelter Inflation over 3%. Check. Energy Deflation. Check. Health Insurance Inflation Ignored. Check.  Inflation of all items less than inflation minus the "volatile" Food and Energy components. Say what? "Tepid Oct. Inflation, Energy Deflation" goes into the details.

(Nov. 14) The seasonally adjusted (SA) first-time unemployment (FTU) used to garner headlines as it hit the 60 week mark, then the seventy, then the 80 week mark, and the 90 week mark. They did not report the 100th week. They did not report the 150th week mark or the 200th week mark. "First-time Unemployment Claims Streak Approaching 250 weeks" reported on the strong first-time claims data, the strong continuing claims data, and the record setting Insured Unemployment Rate (IUR) data.

(Nov. 15) Almost any news report regarding the economy rehashes the statement tat 70% of the US Economy is attributed to the US Consumer. You would think that the monthly report on retail sales would create a stir. Record non-seasonally adjusted October sales. Meh. Record October Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales. Meh. Meh.  We saw month to month and October to October growth in both the NSA and the SA data. All four component rose. "October MARTS Surprise" details how the seasonally adjusted total marts retail sales were greater during October 2019 than they were during either November or December 2018. We had Christmas during October. Ten straight months with the SA Total Marts sales over $500B (the first time ever.) Forget About It.

This month the theme of virtually every article has been "If good news is recorded and not reported did it ever happen?" Low inflation. Low unemployment. Record number of weeks with non-seasonally adjusted first-time claims under 200,00 claims? Record low Insured Unemployment Rate? Record Retail Sales? The media must be tired of winning.

It's the Economy.