Reclaiming Common Sense

If Good News is Recorded and Not Reported Did It Really Happen?

September Surplus. Solid GDP. Record Unemployment Data. Strong October Jobs

We received the end of the year Treasury Statement at the end of last week. It was released very quietly as it revealed a September Surplus. This week was "all about the jobs." The week started with an ADP forecast article and a Employment Situation Report forecast article. The ADP report was disappointing. That is okay because normally when the ADP data is strong it takes the sting out of a weak job report and when it is weak it makes a strong jobs report look even stronger.

(Oct. 28) We ran a surplus during September (Debtember.) We had record revenue, record on-budget revenue, record off-budget revenue, record Individual Taxes, Record Corporate, all with lower tax rates an higher savings rates. Check out "September Treasury Surplus of $82.8B."

(Oct. 28)  The ADP data indicated that we could have had a very strong Payroll report. The biggest question were were we going to see month to month declines in Mining and Logging? Were we going to see October to October Declines in mining and logging. "October ADP: Expecting a Treat" explains how month to month growth, October to October growth, and current year growth (January through September) were pointing towards at least 170,000 seasonally adjusted payroll positions to be added to the economy.

(Oct. 29) The monthly Employment Situation Report, or Jobs Report, is created using two different data sets: The Current Population Survey (CPS) for Jobs and Unemployment and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) data on Workers and Wages. The two data sets how been out of sync all year. This month both data sets were pointing towards significant gains, non-seasonally adjusted. The CPS data was pointing towards a surge in multiple job workers, a surge in full-time jobs, a potential surge in part-time jobs, and an expected drop in unemployment. The CES data was pointing towards a spike in workers and wages. "Oct. Jobs Forecast: Spike in Jobs and Workers" dug into "all of the data."

(Oct. 30) Wednesday was ADP Day. The title of the article "Oct. ADP: Trick not Treat" pretty much says it all. The article reported that while we did see private sector payroll gains October to October, as expected, the gains in month to month data was weaker than expected. Natural resource dropped, as expected. Manufacturing dropped, probably because of the GM strike. Construction dropped? In this economy?

(Oct. 31) We received a Halloween Treat with regard to the GDP. naysayers were projecting under 1.5% growth quarter to quarter. The media has been projecting a recession since November 5th 2016. Bill Maher "wants" a recession.  "Advance Third Quarter GDP: 1.9% is Okay" examined the data for Personal Consumption Expenditures, Gross Private Domestic Investment, Imports and Exports, and Government Consumption Expenditures.

(Oct. 31) Thursday has been, and always will be, except on Holidays, Unemployment Claims day. We have been setting modern era records for first-time claims and continuing claims. This week we recorded a record 23rd week with non-seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment claims under 200,000 claims. The best year ever before President Trump was elected was 1967 (19 Weeks.) Former President Obama had 2 weeks during 2016 and 1 week during 2015. "First-time Unemployment Claims Treat" celebrates Week #23 for his year.

(Nov. 1) We received a strong Jobs Report this Friday, in case you didn't hear about it, or the stock upward push in the stock markets, plural, after the report was released. "October Jobs Report Treat: Strong Worker Data" explains how the October data was "held back" a little because the September and August data were revised upward from their Advance and preliminary levels. Full-time jobs edged higher, as did part-time jobs. We had the most combined FT and PT jobs ever for a given month. More than the normal peak of July. Participation rose to the highest October level since 2012.

A September Surplus, Meh. Better than Expect GDP. Whatever. Historic Weekly unemployment claims data. Okay. A record level of Jobs in the United States for the month of October and for any month. Huh? That's not what you are hearing in the news? You are hearing about Impeachment, China, Beto, and Hillary? Go figure.

It's the Economy.