If Good News is Recorded and Not Reported Did It Really Happen?
More Detail on Jobs Data - Unemployment - A Bond Inversion
This was a slow week for data. Next week is looking to bee slow, as well. The main things that came out, as far as this column is considered, was the weekly claims data. This means that there was some time to dig into the Jobs Report and the claims that the 3 month 19 year bind inversion foretells of an impending recession.
(Nov. 4) The October Jobs report had excellent data regarding workers and wages. Workers are up. Wages are Up. October Workers and Wages Reveal Strong Economy
details how workers grew month to month and October to October. When wages and workers increase on an annual basis then the economy can expand on an annual basis.
(Nov. 5) This column, or its predecessor, have been comparing the current President with prior Presidents since "Four Presidents at 81 Months." The Current Population Survey painted a different picture than what was being portrayed in the press. There was a meme that said that former President created the most jobs since former President Clinton. Recovered, maybe, created, no. "Five Presidents at 33 Months: Participation Up" continues the discussion and points to the truth that former President Clinton and President Trump are the only Presidents since Reagan that managed to cut unemployment and boost full-time jobs during their first 33 months in office.
(Nov. 5) The government produced the September Jobs Report last week and the August JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report this week. The common thinking is that the Job Openings data is good because it is greater than the current unemployment level. It is dangerous, at best, to compare data from different data sets. "September JOLTS: Record Quits, Hires" explains how we are taking 3 steps forward (Hires) and 2 steps back (Quits.)
(Nov. 7) The jobs report, specifically the Current Population Survey (CPS) data, contains information that is often ignored. Men lost more full-time jobs than women during the recession. Women have added new jobs at a faster rate than men. We are at near October records for total multiple jobs, dual part-time jobs and people working a primary full-time jobs and secondary part-time jobs. "Record Oct. Job Levels for Men, Women" explored the data.
(Nov. 7) We have set a record for the number of weeks with non-seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment claims under 200,000 claims for a single year (23.) We tied a record for the lowest record Insured Unemployment rate (IUR) at 0.95%. This week we recorded Another Record. The IUR was under 1.00% for the seventh consecutive week.
(Nov. 8) There was talk about "end times" for the expansion when the 2 year bond rate and the 10 year bond rate inverted. The problem is that it has to invert for months, not moments. Soon after this column produced an article on the 2-10 inversion talking heads started discussing the 3 month 10 year inversion (360-120.) The data for the 360-120 is a sample size of three previous inversions. This week the article "The 3 month and 10 Year bond Yields Inverted. So What" questioned if the inversion was long enough or if it even mattered considering that the 2-10 did not invert for one month.
A recession can have "many causes." The Great Recession was the convergence of a Housing Recession, a Jobs Recession, a Retail Recession, as well as a 3 month and 10 year bond inversion and the 2-10 year bond inversion. New home sales have been improving this year compared to last year.
It's the Economy.
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