Reclaiming Common Sense

Last Year November Retail Sales were reported Higher Than December

November Should Report over $530 Billion in Total Sales, December Higher

Last week we received the November Jobs report which recorded and reported record levels of workers and jobs. The non-seasonally adjusted wages and worker data revealed increasing wages across the board. This should bode well for November and December sales. Last year we had the "Schumer Shutdown" that shutdown the government, loan approvals, and retail sales. This year we have had the best new home sales data since 2007. We have also had ten straight months of seasonally adjusted retail sales over $500 billion a month. We can expect good retail sales to be recorded, non-seasonally adjusted, and reported, seasonally adjusted.

We will have either our eighth or ninth month of non-seasonally adjusted retails sales over $500 billion for this year, this month. We have had seven months with over $500 billion in sales and one month with $499 billion in retail sales. It is possible that the September retail sales could be revised to over $500 billion in sales. There were some offsetting revisions of the September data last month with some categories revised higher than originally reported, and some being reported lower than first reported. This month we will receive the "final revision" for the September data, and the "preliminary" data for Octobers with the release of the "advance value" for November.

We should record monster spikes in month to month sales in five sectors. The non-seasonally adjusted data for October to November is expected to spike 30-35% in Electronics and Appliance (EAS) Sales, another 20-24% in Non-store Retail (NSR,) plus 20-23% in Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Books and Music (SGHBM,) 12-15% in General Merchandise, and 9-12% for Furniture and Home Furnishings (FHF.) We can also expect some drops in month to moth sales in Gasoline Station (GASS,) Health and Personal Care (HPC,) Building Material and garden Equipment (BMGE,) and possibly Motor Vehicle and Automotive Parts (MVP.) We saw growth of roughly 3.25% during November 2016 and 2018 and a spike of 4.75% during November 2017. Expect a jump of 3.50% to 4.00%, or roughly $540B to 546 billion in sales, based on month to month data.

We should record November to November growth in all sectors except Sporting Goods Hobbies, Books and Music and Electronics and Appliances (EAS.)  The sales for SGHBM and EAS have been shifting to NSR for a number of years. The largest growth is expected in NSR (12-15%,) HPC (4-6%,) Miscellaneous Sales (MISC,) and Food and Beverage Stores (FBS)(3-5%.) Last month NSR, FBS and Food and Drinking Place Sales (FDP) were almost identical. Last year NSR outpaced both FDP and FBS. MVP sales could be the wildcard this month, growing 2%, 4%, 65% or even 8% first November.  Expect the overall Nov-Nov growth to be 3.25%-4.25%-5.25% or $540-550 billion in sales.

We "will" have our eleventh consecutive month of seasonally adjusted sales over $500 billion, this month. Last year the NSA MARTS was 522B and 564 billion, for November and December. Last year the seasonally adjusted data was $510B and $499.9B respectively. Up was down in Governmentland last year.

Expect seasonally adjusted month to month growth in all sectors except Gasoline, Electronic and Appliance (EAS,) and Furniture and Furnishings (FHF.) Last year we "reported" decline in these three sectors and BMGE, SGHBM, and FDP. Will a huge non-seasonally adjusted spike in SGHBM be reported as a decline? Expect a jump in NSR, MISC, HPC, FBS and FDP sales. Expect 0.34% to 0.69% jump in sales.  This would be a sizable jump from last year's $510B (roughly 3.75%) Expect or $528 billion  to 530 billion in sales.

Expect seasonally adjusted November to November growth in all but two Sectors: EAS and SGHBM. The largest growth should be in NSR (10-15%,) FDP (5%,) Clothing and Clothing Accessories (CAC,) HPC and General Merchandise (GM.) Expect 3.99%, 4.99%, and possibly even 5.99% Nov-Nov growth.  Expect 530 billion, $535 billion, or $540 billion based on Nov-Nov growth.

Current Year growth is projecting the data to the low side of expectations. So far we have had $5.101 trillion in NSA MARTS sales. This means that we should see $511 billion in NSA ARTS sales. We have seen the current year (CY) growth rate accelerate since June and are at roughly 3.40%. Seasonally adjusted the CY data is at 5.181 Trillion or roughly $518 billion a month. Last month the CY growth exceeded the rolling year growth so the market should be expanding. The Current month growth has been exceeding the rolling year and current year growth rates so these "averages" should be the low range of expectations. This may be what others are using for their "expectations."

Net-net, expect $540 bullion in non-seasonally adjusted sales to be reported as $530 billion to $535 billion in seasonally adjusted sales. Remember that we are on track for our 11th consecutive month of more than $500 billion in  "headline" seasonally adjusted retail sales and our second $6 trillion retail sales year.

It is the Economy.