Reclaiming Common Sense

The Week Brought Strong Data regarding Unemployment, Job Openings & Inflation.

It also allowed a deep dig into the September Jobs Report Data.


A week ago we were discussing the September Jobs Report. There were some things missed by the media at large. We saw a monster surge in part-time jobs. The participation rate was the highest for the month of September since September 2013. Unemployment dropped, and will drop again during October.  This all plays into what was discussed this week.


(Oct.7) There are more workers working this year than last year in all sectors. All sectors received a pay raise. There are ten main private sector sectors identified in the Jobs Report. The e average hourly rate rose for all ten. This does not happen very often. The details are found in "Strong. Sep. Worker and Wages Data."


(Oct. 7)  If you listened to some in the media you would think that President Trump is doing a terrible job with regard to the economy. You have to compare the first 32 months under President Trump with the first 32 months of former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama. Only President Trump and Former President Clinton have been able to reduce unemployment, add full-time jobs, and boost the participation rates during their first 32 months in office. "Five Presidents at 32 Month: Full-time Job Leader" examines the data.


(Oct. 9) The data that is used to create the Jobs Report comes from two data sets: The CPS (Current Population Survey) data on jobs and unemployment and the CES (Current Employment Statistics) worker and wages data. The CPS data includes information on full-time and part-time jobs, as well as multiple job workers. That data is broken down by race and gender and age. The recent September participation data is comparable to September 2013. The article "Record Sep. for Women and Multiple Job Workers" details how we have more women working than during any prior month. It also details how we have the most September Dual PT workers and the most September workers who were working a primary full-time job and a secondary part-time job. We normally hit peak multiple job workers during October, November, and December. Women work more PT PT jobs than men. Men work more FT FT jobs than women.


(Oct.9)  Last week we received the September Jobs Report. This week we received the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data on Job Opening, Hires, Quits, and Separations.  The same four sectors have the most job openings, hires, quits, and total separation as have had them for a protracted period of time.  We set an all-time record high for Quits this month. August is traditionally "Peak Quits" as people head back to school. "August JOLTS Déjà Vu: Record Quits and Separations Again" examines the data.


(Oct. 10) This week we had a record tying weekly unemployment claims report. This was our twenty-first week this year with the non-seasonally adjusted first-time unemployment claims under 200,000 claims. Continuing Times are near a 40 year low. The Insured unemployment rate is within 0.01% of the all-time record low.


(Oct 11) The weekly unemployment claims report was released at the same time as the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. There has been talk that we may be in a "deflationary death spiral." Nope. More of the same. We are experiencing commodity deflation and service inflation along with 3.5% Shelter inflation. The report was issued on Thursday. "September CPI: Inflation only 1.49%" also highlights the spike in Health insurance that may or may not be happening.


This week there was more talk about the Whistle blower, More talk about Impeachment. More talks about obstruction. There were also talks with China regarding Phase one of a trade agreement. The Obstruction Impeachment smoke screen is obscuring solid economic data. Wages are up. Workers are up. New Construction is Up. New Home sales are up. Retail sales are on a record pace. Now I am getting ahead of myself. We will receive Retail data and new construction data next week.


It's the Economy.