Reclaiming Common Sense

The Month of October started with the ADP Payroll Report, a remarkable Weekly Unemployment Claims Report, and a Seriously Strong September Jobs Report.

The week started with an ADP Payroll Forecast article and  a September Jobs Report Forecast article. The ADP payroll Report was released on Wednesday, the Weekly Unemployment Claims data report on Thursday and the Employment Situation Report on Friday.

(Sep. 30) The week started with looking at he ADP Payroll data and projecting what was possible for the Private Sector Payroll Report. It was thought that all sectors would add to their seasonally adjusted payroll number month to month and September to September. The annual rate of growth, the same month rate of growth, and the current year trend were indicating a possibly strong payroll number. "September ADP Forecast: Rebounding, Accelerating" examined all of the data.

(Oct. 1) The ADP report is released the Wednesday prior to the Friday Jobs Report. The ADP data is different from the Current Population Survey Jobs and Unemployment data and the Current Employment Statistics Workers (CES) and Wages data that are used to create the Jobs Report. The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data projected a substantial decline in CES workers as Summer came to a close. The Seasonally Adjusted (SA) CES data indicated that all sectors except possibly Mining and Logging would add to their payrolls month to month and September to September. The "September Jobs Report Forecast: Looking Up, Unemployment Will Fall"  title was based on the CPS data. It was thought hat we could see over one million NSA Part-time jobs added to the economy, drop a half million full-time jobs, and see unemployment drop by 200,000 to 800,000 workers.

(Oct. 2) Wednesday brought the "long awaited" ADP Private Sector Payroll report. The ADP report does not include government payroll data. The ADP Payroll number came in weaker than projected. That is okay because last month the ADP number was stronger than expected and the CES non-farm-payroll number was weaker than expected. Even though nine out of ten sectors grew month to month and September to September the media was focused on the 135,000 seasonally adjusted payroll positions created.

(Oct. 3) The continuing unemployment claims number fell, again. The Insured unemployment rate was recorded under 1.00%, again. The number of non-seasonally adjusted first-time claims was recorded under 200,000 claims, again. "Twentieth Week with First-time Claims under 200,000" tells you what other outlets are ignoring.

(Oct. 4) Friday was Jobs Day. What a day it was. The original focus from the media was the relatively week SA CES Non-farm Payroll number of 136,000 workers added to the economy. This reconciles well with the ADP private sector data until you realize that there was a spike in Government Workers. It reconciles well until you realize that the August Private Sector and NFP numbers were revised higher by roughly 30,000 positions each, in effect "stealing" 30,000 jobs from the September level. The number of NSA Part-time jobs created this month exceeded 1.1 million. There were 738,000 fewer unemployed workers this month than during August. The more that people examined the data the story became the near all-time low unemployment rate for the month of September. People are finally addressing the differences between the CPS data and the CES data. The September Participation Rate was almost identical to the September 2013 participation rate when we had a 7.00% unemployment rate. This month the NSA U-3 unemployment rate is just 3.33%. Please read and share "Sep. Jobs Report: Unemployment Down, Part-time Jobs Up."

This week more airtime was given to the Impeachment Investigation that is based on second hand information than the economic data. The economy is still growing. Unemployment is still falling. There will be an uptick in unemployment at he end of the year. The Scrooge Effect happens ever year. Every year. Next week we should tie the all-time record of 21 weeks with NSA First-time Claims under 200,000. Next week this column will dig into the jobs data and public the "Workers and Wages" article, the "Five Presidents at 32 Months" article and the "Men and Women are Winning" article on full-time jobs, part-time jobs, and multiple jobs.

It's the Economy.