Reclaiming Common Sense

If Good News is Recorded and Not Reported Did It Really Happen?

Ten Consecutive Months of  Retail Sales greater than $500 billion!

Last month we nearly recorded our seventh consecutive month of more than $500 billion in total non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) MARTS Retail sales. The Total sales for September was recorded at $499.368 billion.An upward revisions of $1B  to the September data was expected. Last month we reported our ninth consecutive month of more than $500 billion in seasonally adjusted (SA) MARTS Retail sales. Number ten was expected. 

What was expected? The article "Expecting All Retail Sales to Report Growth" broke down the non-seasonally adjusted data (what is recorded) and the seasonally adjusted data (what is reported) on month to month terms and October top October terms.

  • Non-seasonally adjusted Retail sales was expected to  grow by 1% to 5% month to month. The largest month to month gains were expected in NSR, Building Material and Garden Equipment (BMGE,) Food and Beverage Stores (FBS,) Miscellaneous (MISC) Sales, and Health and Personal Care (HPC,) sales.  Declines in Electronic and Appliance (EAS) sales and Sporting Goods, Hobbes, Books and Music (SGHBM) sales month to month were expected.
  • Non-Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales should grow 3.75% to 5.75% from last October's Level of $506 billion.  The largest growth is expected to be seen in BMGE, NSR, FBS, MISC, and HPC. We may see declines in Gasoline Sales (GASS,) SGHBM, and EAS. Net-Net: expect to see SGHBM and EAS sales to record decline month to month and October to October. If we grow 3.75% to 5.75% October to October then we should record total sales of $525B to $535B.
  • Seasonally adjusted monthly growth is expected between 0.30% and 1.00%. Last October all sectors except Furniture and Home Furnishing (FHF) Sales. The largest month to month gains should be reported in BMGE, FHF, EAS, Clothing and Clothing Accessories (CAC,) Motor Vehicle (MVP) Sales, and NSR sales.
  • Seasonally Adjusted October to October Growth is expected in all sectors, grow by 3.50% to 5.00%  The sectors expected to grow the most are BMGE, NSR, CAC, NSR, MISC, and General Merchandise (GM) sales. Total sales are expected to grow between 3.50% and 5.00%. This means that the SA MARTS data is expected to come in between $525B and $535B.

Non-seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Grew by 5.18% month to month.  There was month to month growth in 11 sectors. Only 2 sectors declined month to month, Electronics and Appliance Sales and SGHBM sales both declined month to month.  The sectors that had the largest growth rates were MISC (9.28%,) BMGE (8.61%,) NSR (7.84%,) GM (7.46%,) and CAC (7.20%) 

Non-Seasonally Adjusted Sales Grew by 3.68% October to October. There was October to October Growth in 9 of the 13 sectors. The four sectors that declined were EAS, BMGE, GASS, and CAC. The sectors with the largest growth rates were NSR (14.56%,) FDP (5.21%,) MVP (5.12%,) and MISC (4.34%.)

Current Year Sales are up 3.39% while Rolling Year Sales are up 3.23%. The largest growth during the first ten months of the year have been in NSR (12.52%,) FDP (4.20%,) HPC (3.73%,) MVP (3.63%,) and MISC (2.67%.) If you look at he non-seasonally adjusted 13 month data table you will see that we were growing at a much faster rate prior to the Government Shutdown, or "Schumer Shutdown." This is why the rolling year (RY) growth rate is lower than the current year (CY) growth rate. The situation where the CY rate is greater than the RY growth rate means that the economy is expanding.

Seasonally adjusted month to month growth was reported up 0.26%. This is slightly lower than the low end of expectations for the SA growth even though the NSA growth exceeded month to month expectations. A second disadvantage is that there are 13 sectors that are being seasonally adjusted. Each season factor is different from the next. We only had six sectors that grew seasonally adjusted, month to month: GASS (1.10%,) NSR (0.92%,) MVP (0.53%,) FBS (0.46%,) GM (0.38%,) and HOC (0.03%.)

Seasonally Adjusted October to October growth was 3.13%. First, this is the tenth consecutive month with seasonally adjusted MARTS sales in excess of $500.000B. Second, we had more SA MARTS sales this month than we had during either November or December Last Year. Third, nine out of thirteen sectors grew October to October. The declines were in EAS, BMGE, GASS, and CAC. The sectors with the largest growth were NSR (14.25%,) FDP (4.68%,) MVP (4.46%,) MISC (4.27%, and FBS (3.21%.)

Current Year Sales are up 3.35% while rolling year sales are up 3.24%. Once again, the current year growth rate is larger than the rolling year growth rate so the economy is expanding. The sectors with the largest current year growth are NSR (12.70%,)FDP (4.13%,)  HPC (3.67%,) MVP (3.59%,) and FBS 2.99%.. The seasonally adjusted data and charts can be found here.

Last year we had $6.021 trillion in non-seasonally adjusted total retail sales. The seasonally adjusted data was reported at $6.023 trillion. The current growth rates, and the acceleration thereof,  means that we could hit $6.25 trillion for the first time ever. We are on track for another record retail sales year. It is unlikely that we will hit our first ever $600 billion month this December. We would need a 7% spike over last December's level. If we get 5% then we would hit $591B. That is possible. If we are setting records and "nobody" reports it, did they really happen? Yes. Yes, they really happened. Others are just distracted by Impeachment-mania.

It's the Economy.