Jack Dunn - Reclaiming Common Sense

The August New Home Sales Report was released today. Oh, wait, the Dallas Cowboys took a knee before the National Anthem last night, some season ticket holder is burning his season tickets, bars and restaurants are turning off the NFL games, and DirecTv is giving season refunds for their NFL Packages. Which is more important to you? If you are still reading this column, probably the economy and new home sales. This column wrote an article last week forecasting strength in the new home sales arena. How did it go? Not that well according to the authors of the report - The data paints a different picture. The data can be examined from a monthly units sold perspective, August to August, rolling year, January to August, the average sales price, the median sales price, and other ways.

New Record August Average Sales Price. The Average Sales price for August was over $368,000. Last August is was $364,700 after revisions.The Median Sales Price was $300,200 up from last August's $298,900, after revisions.

The Rolling Year Data indicates that we have sold 591,000 units during the past twelve months. This is down a whole 1000 units from last month because 1,000 fewer units were sold this August than last August. One month does not make a trend.

The Current Year Sales is still on track for 600,000 Units. We sold 561,000 units during all of last year. We sold 392,000 units through August of last year and 422,000 units through August of this year. We should be hitting 591,000 to 608,000 units this year, not the 560,000 estimated by the authors of the report.

Net - Net this was a good month, not a great month. The average sales price was up over last August. The Median Sales price is up over last August. We have sold more units through August of this year than through August of last Year. The trend is higher. The authors of the sales report have been undercutting the projections for the past two months. We have a long way to go to get back to the levels we had during 1993, 2003, 2005, 2006, or 2007.

Play Ball. Stand for the National Anthem. Deal with it. President Trump is President through January 20, 2021 and probably through all of 2024 through January 20, 2025. The economy is improving whether or not the mainstream media wants to report it.

It's the economy.