July Jobs Report Recorded Record Levels of FT Jobs and Workers
How are Men and Women doing in the Economy?
The ADP Private Sector Payroll report was released this past Wednesday. The Jobs Report, or Employment Situation was released this past Friday. There was growth in all sectors except mining and Logging (Natural Resources) and Information (IT.)
Last month was the best month ever for men and women workers. Women saw fewer full-time job losses than men during the recession. Women recovered from their job losses faster than men. What is the story this month?
The number of men working hit an all-time high. There are 125.378 million men in the workforce population. There are 75.375 million men working full-time jobs and 9.422 million working part-time jobs. There are 3.227 million men who are counted as unemployed. We saw more than 10 million men lose full-time jobs between July 2007 and January 2010. Men broke even during the Summer of 2016 before they were lost again. This was repeated during 2017. We have seen 3.7 million full-time jobs added for men since the beginning of 2018.
The workforce participation rate for men broke back through the 70% level this month. Participation peaks for men during July. The last time that men had a participation rate was over 70% was July 2016.Unemployment rose from June and was still lower than July 2018. The participation rate was almost identical to that of July 2014 with an unemployment rate 2.52% lower than July 2014. The difference in the participation rate. The U-7 effective unemployment rate is possibly 3.88% based on the 2014 participation rate or 8.97% based on the July 2007 participation rate. Participation matters.
This was the best July ever for women. It was not quite the best month ever, as it was for men. There were 133.847 million women in the workforce population with 56.777 million working full-time jobs, 16.810 million working part-time jobs, and 3.329 million unemployed women. This means that there are more women in the workforce population than men, and that women work more part-time jobs than men and fewer full-time jobs than men.
Women have added 5.264 million full-time jobs and 598,000n part-time jobs since July 2007. Women recovered earlier than the men. They have added more full-time jobs than men. Women have a lower participation rate and a lower unemployment rate than they had during July 2007. Their official U-3 unemployment rate is 4.33%. The unofficial U-7 effective unemployment rate is 7.92% compared to the July U-3 of 5.20%. If you con worked 108,00mpare the unemployment rate and participation rate with were they were during July 2014 there are -421,000 missing workers, or 421,000 more workers than would be expected. Instead of the U-7 being 7.92% it is 3.80%. This is good. this is why participation matters.
Women are working more dual jobs than men. That is not the whole story. There were:
This is not the entire story either.
We had a record level of July multiple job worker. There were 8.310 million people working multiple jobs this July. The record for the month of July was 8.053 million during July 1997. The last time we were at 8.3 million was November 1998.
We had the second most number of July workers working a primary FT job and a secondary PT Job. This month we had 4.503 million FT PT workers. we had 4.514 million FT PT workers during July 1997.
We had a record level of people working two Part-time Jobs. We had 2.091 million PT PT workers this month compared to 2.030 million during July 2018 and 1.9 79 million during July 2017.
A second job is the ultimate form of Unemployment Insurance. If a person loses one job then s/he still has another job. Tomorrow we receive the weekly unemployment claims data. We have had eleven weeks this year with the non-seasonally adjusted first-time claims number under 200,000. The trend should be for lower levels of first-time claims through September.
Unemployed workers versus Weekly Claims versus Job Openings. Yesterday we received the JOLTS job openings data for June. Don't conflate Job Openings with Unemployed workers or Continuing Unemployment Claims data. The data used for unemployed workers is from the Current Population Survey Data (CPS.) The headline worker data is from the Current Employment Statistics Survey (CES) Data. The JOLTS data is comparable to, and still different from, the CES data. The weekly claims data is yet another different data set. All of these data sets have seasonally adjusted (SA) and NSA data components. The seasonal factors used to convert the NSA data to SA data change by data set, by month, by year. Is the data raw (NSA) or ripe (SA.) Are you comparing An Apple (CPS,) with an Orange (CES,) with a Grapefruit (JOLTS,) or a pear (Weekly Claims?) That is how different these data sets are when compared to one another.
All recession are jobs recessions. We are growing our job base year over year. We have more men working this year than last July. We have more women working this year than last July. We are not in a recession.
It's the Economy.
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