Reclaiming Common Sense

  Men and Women Are Winning This May

Record May Jobs For Men and Women This May

This year has been the Tale of two data sets, the Current Population Survey (CPS) jobs and unemployment data and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Wages and Worker Data. The disagreement between the CPS and CES data was detailed in the May Jobs Report Forecast Article. There has been some disagreement between the ADP Payroll Report and the "Jobs Report." The February Payroll Report was strong while the February Private sector data  was weak. 

  • "May Jobs Report Surprise after ADP Disappointment" detailed how that while we added 778,000 non-seasonally adjusted workers to the economy it was only reported as being an addition of 90,000 seasonally adjusted private sector workers.
  • "Record May Wage and Worker Data" explained how all sectors saw annual wages rise. The growth in workers and wages meant a 4.50% increase in total income earned from May to May.
  • "Five Presidents at 28 Months: Jobs Mountain" examined the number of Jobs created and the changes in unemployment during the first 28 months of former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, Obama and President Trump. President Trump has created more full-time jobs than the the four Presidents combined, during their first 28 months in office.

 How are men and women doing? What is happening with regard to the number of multiple job workers?

Men recorded an increase in Full-time jobs, a decrease in part-time jobs, and a drop in unemployment. Men had lost 10.6 million full-time jobs between July 2007 and January 2010. They recovered those lost full-time jobs during the Summer of 2015 before losing them again. This happened again during the Summer of 2016, and the Summer of 2017. Every January we see lay-offs for full-time employees, non-seasonally adjusted. The big picture this month was that full-time jobs expanded and part-time jobs contracted.  Men saw part-time jobs drop month to month and May to May. Men saw their unemployment levels drop month to month and May to May. Right now there are more men working full-time this month compared to last month and last May. This is the definition of an expanding jobs market.   The problem is that jobs are not growing as fast as the male workforce population. The participation rate has fallen from 73.16% during May 2007 to 69.12% during May 2019.  While the official unemployment rate for men, non-seasonally adjusted, is 3.43%, we are missing 8 million potential workers. This means that the effective unemployment rate is 8.77%

Women saw a drop in full-time jobs, an decrease in part-time jobs, and an increase in unemployment during May. Women also saw a drop in full-time jobs from May to May, an increase in Part-time jobs May to May, and a drop in unemployment May to May. It is important to remember that there are more women in the workforce than men, that women work fewer full-time jobs than men, and women work more part-time jobs than men.Women are seeing their participation rate improve, even though it is still lower than it was during May 2007. If women were participating at the same rate they participated during May 2007 then there would be 2.65 million more participants. It is also important to note than women lost fewer full-time jobs than men during the recession. It is also important to note that they recovered those lost jobs sooner than men. Women had recovered from the Jobs Recession by the Summer of 2015. Women have an effective unemployment rate of 6.58% compared to the non-seasonally adjusted U-3 rate of 3.33%. There are 2.653 million missing female workers.

There was an increase in the number of people working Multiple Jobs during May. There were 7.857 million people working multiple jobs during May with 4.414 million people working a full-time Job (FT) and a Part-time Job (PT), or FT PT, there were 1.990 million people working PT PT, and 325,000 people working  FT FT. The balance of people were working variable hours. This column calls them the PT FT workers, which numbered 1.129 million. We had 446,000 more workers working multiple jobs this May than during May 2018. Could we see a new record this Winter for multiple job workers?

We saw the highest level of FT PT workers for the month of May since May 1999. We also saw the highest level of May total multiple job workers since Mat 1999. This is important because the best form of unemployment insurance is a second job. The spike in FT jobs and the drop in PT jobs was reflected in the drop in dual PT jobs month to month. Men saw the number of FT PT jobs rise to 2.328 million while women saw the number of FT PT workers drop to 2.086 million. Men saw the number of dual PT jobs drop to 690,000 while women saw their numbers drop to 1.299 million workers.

We saw the highest level of dual FT job workers during the month of May since 1999 and 2000.  We had 325,000 dual FT job workers this May compared to 334,000 during May 1999 and 327,000 during May 2000. Men and women saw the number of FT FT workers rise. There are 204,000 men working FT FT and 121,000 women working FT FT.

Men tend to work more FT jobs than women and women tend to work more PT jobs than men. This means that we should see more women working PT PT and more men working FT FT. That is what we saw this month. Men and women were at record levels for total jobs during the month of May this month. There was a record level of full-time jobs, combined men and women, this May. All recessions are jobs recession. We are in a Jobs Expansion.

It's the Economy.