Second Week of The Month - JOLTS Report, Inflation Report, Retail Report

Remarkable, Remarkable, Remarkable

The week started where last week ended. This column writes numerous articles on the topic of the monthly Jobs Report, or Employment Situation Report. The first three articles of the month focused on the Jobs Report. This week we received the July Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, and the MARTS Monthly and Annual Retail Trade Survey report. Why were they virtually ignored? Oh, and an outstanding weekly unemployment claims was released, or something, on Thursday.

(Sep. 9) The August ADP Private Sector Payroll Report surprised to the high side. The August Non-farm Payroll Number disappointed most in the media. There was month to month growth in all but three sectors: Leisure and Hospitality (LAH,) Other Services (OS,) and Mining and Logging (M/L.) The decline in LAH and OS were anticipated.There was August to August growth in all sectors. This was expected.  Every sector saw August to August to wage growth. All of this is covered in "Aug. to Aug. Worker Growth in all Sectors."

(Sep. 9)  There has been a considerable discussion about the addition of jobs under President Trump during his first 31 months in office and Former President Obama's final three years. Last year it was President Trump's first 24 months and former President Obama's final two years. (Hint: That comparison was being made during October, during month 21 for President Trump. President Trump won the 24 vs 24 comparison.)  How is President Trump doing compared to former Presidents Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama at the 31 months mark?  "Five Presidents at 31 Months: Full-time versus Total Jobs" reminds up that at 31 months in office  former President Obama had lost a net 100,000 jobs. Compare that to 7.3 million more jobs created by President Trump.

(Sep. 10) The job report includes information on the full-time, part-time and unemployment status of men and women. The article "Women Winning 2019 Jobs Race" details how there are more men working than during any other August,  there are more women working this August than during any other prior August, and how participation is still down for men and women compared to August 2007. Men

(Sep. 11) We saw record July levels of Hires, Quits, and total separations. The "headline" number is the job openings level. Last year we had 7.772 million job openings. This year we only had 7.471 million. The most job openings were in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (TTU,) Education and Health Services (EHS) Professional Business Services (PBS,) and Leisure and Hospitality (LAH.) We almost had a record level of July Job Openings. The article "July JOLTS Report: Record July Levels of Quits and Separations" also discusses that the four sectors with the most Hires, Quits, and total Separations are the same as those with the most Job Openings.

(Sep. 12)  This week we saw the seventeenth week with non-seasonally adjusted first-time claims under 200,000. The NSA FTU fell to 159,282 claims. That is correct. One Hundred and fifty nine thousand two hundred and eighty two claims. This is the seventeenth week of NSA FTU claims under 200,000 claims. What else was recorded, non-seasonally adjusted, and what was reported, seasonally adjusted regarding first-time claims, continuing claims, and the Insured Unemployment Rate this week? All three topics are covered in "Seventeenth Week with First-time Unemployment Claims Under 200,000."

(Sep. 13) There has been considerable noise that the Trade War with China would lead to increased costs for Americans. The things that have been ignored for an extended period of time is that we have had commodity deflation and service inflation for an extended period of time.  The article "What Tariff Inflation" explains that Shelter Inflation accounts for almost all of the inflation we are experiencing, that Energy Deflation (formerly called a Gasoline Stimulus under the Obama Administration) is reducing overall inflation, and that the "threat of deflation" is being oversold by the mainstream media.

(Sep. 13)  The Retail Sales numbers have been showing improvement just as prognosticators are proclaiming the imminent recession. Some of these savants are the same ones who were promoting the never ending recession that would ensue if Donald Trump was elected President. There are many ways to examine the sales data. This column uses the current year data, the trailing year(rolling year) data, and the same month data. The article "August Retail Surprise: 4.20% Same Month Growth" examined all of the data and found that the retail economy is on the upswing, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. This month was our sixth consecutive month with more than $500 billion in retail sales. Last year we had eight months. We could exceed $600 billion for a month for the first time ever this December.

The media is "obsessed" with the monthly Treasury Report that was released this Thursday. There were two other reports released the same day: the CPI report and the weekly unemployment report. There is only so much time in a day. Next week this column will address the $1T deficit this year and how the deficit should drop due to a September Surplus. If only there was a 24 hour news cycle that could be used to cover the rest of the news of the day.

It's the Economy.​

 Reclaiming Common Sense