Reclaiming Common Sense

 UpThird Week of The Month - Healthy Housing Data

Very Strong Weekly Unemployment Claims Data


This column writes a forecast article each month that covers the New Construction prospects, the existing home prospects, and the new home sales potential. Every week we have a weekly unemployment claims report, even though the mainstream media barely discusses it.


(Sep. 16) The week started with picking up where last week ended: The Monthly Treasury Report. "August Treasury Report: On-Budget, Off-Budget Revenue Up" took a different approach than most of the reports in the news. Corporate Revenue and Individual Revenue both rose compared to last August, as did on-budget and off-budget revenue. What was missed elsewhere was that some spending that normally happens during September was pushed into August, just as it was last year. The "Trillion dollar deficit" should drop as we could run a $120 billion surplus during September.


(Sep. 16)  The real estate industry is an economic multiplier. Real estate sales stimulate retail sales and hiring. "August Real Estate Forecast: Building Momentum" projected possibilities for the New Home Construction data, the New Home Sales data, and the Existing Home Sales data.


(Sep. 18)  Wednesday's August New Construction Report caught people of surprise if they had not read the forecast article published on this website. "August New Construction: Jumps in Starts, Units Under Construction, and Completions." We have had our best new construction year since 2007. We had our most completions during any month since December 2007.


(Sep. 19) The weekly unemployment claims data has been basically ignored since 2016. The normal headline first-time claims number was ignored, The continuing claims data was ignored "as always." The Insured unemployment rate fell to 1.01%. All of this is covered in "Eighteenth Week with First-time Claims Under 200k, Again." We are set to challenge last year's 21 week mark.


(Sep. 21) Thursday also included the August Existing Home Sales report. Some things happened that changed the narrative. June was a weaker than expected month, which meant that the annualized rate of sales was weaker than expected. July was strong than expected, boosting the annualized sales level where it normally would decline. This happened during August, too. The rare Saturday article "New August Existing Home Average Sales Price Record" examines the units sold data, average sales price data, and inventory data."


This week, and at the end of the last week, we received remarkable information regarding government revenue, new construction, existing home sales, unemployment claims data, and it is all pointing towards a continuing expansion. Reports on the data that is generated by the government or by the REALTORS are not as sexy as the Trade Negotiations with China, Biden Gaffes, Democrats dropping out of the Presidential Race, the roller coasters of the stock markets, plural, or some random tweet.


It's the Economy.​